The waters across the Atlantic Ocean have been mostly calm.
There hasn’t been widespread panic to buy plywood, sandbags or generators in
weeks. The National Hurricane Center’s Twitter account hasn’t shared an
active-storm message for the Atlantic since October 9, and there have been no
warnings or threats along the Gulf Coast and East Coast since.
اضافة اعلان
Is hurricane season fizzling out early?
“Nope. We’re not done yet,” Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and
spokesman for the National Hurricane Center, said Thursday, adding that
hurricane season doesn’t officially end until Nov. 30.
In May, scientists predicted an “above normal” Atlantic
hurricane season, with 13 to 20 named storms. The National Weather Service
later updated that forecast to 15 to 21 storms, including seven to 10
hurricanes. That followed the record-setting 2020 season, when there were 30
named storms, including 13 hurricanes.
But as of Friday, only 20 named storms had come and gone,
leaving just Wanda on a list of names created by weather officials. The last
major hurricane was Sam, which formed in late September and strengthened into a
Category 4 storm as it crossed the Atlantic. It never posed a serious threat to
land and dissipated nearly two weeks later. The last named storm was Victor, a
tropical storm that broke up October 4 after churning across the eastern
Atlantic. It has been relatively quiet since.
“The most favorite areas for development in October are the Gulf
of Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean Sea,” Feltgen said. “The water
temperatures there are warm enough to support a tropical cyclone, but it’s too
much wind shear in the area. Nothing could get going, let alone sustain itself.
That’s a good thing!”
Predictions suggest the quiet streak may continue for at least
the next week or two, Feltgen said, but he noted recent activity in the Pacific
Ocean, including Hurricanes Pamela and Rick, which both struck western Mexico
this month.
Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University,
said on Twitter that only twice since 1995 had the Atlantic had no named storm
activity from October 6 to October 26, in 2006 and 2007.
A string of storms over the summer battered parts of North
America:
— Hurricane Grace killed at least eight people after making
landfall on the eastern coast of Mexico in August.
— Later that month, Ida slammed Louisiana as a Category 4
hurricane, and its remnants then moved up the East Coast, causing deadly
flooding in the Northeast in early September. The storm killed dozens of
people, most of them in Louisiana, New Jersey and New York.
— Larry struck Canada as a Category 1 hurricane in late
September, causing widespread power outages in Newfoundland before bringing
snow to parts of Greenland.
The links between hurricanes and climate change have become
clearer with each passing year. Data shows that hurricanes have become stronger
worldwide during the past four decades. A warming planet can expect stronger
hurricanes over time, and a higher incidence of the most powerful storms —
though the overall number of storms could drop, because factors like stronger
wind shear could keep weaker storms from forming.
Hurricanes are also becoming wetter because of more water vapor
in the warmer atmosphere; scientists have suggested storms like Hurricane
Harvey in 2017 produced far more rain than they would have without the human
effects on climate. Also, rising sea levels are contributing to higher storm
surge — the most destructive element of tropical cyclones.
“Looking ahead we still have to go through the end of November,
and we typically can see something pop up in the month of November, so we’re
not calling the season yet,” Feltgen said.
Storms that develop late in the season can be equally
unpredictable, he said, and November storms have been known to hit both the
Gulf and East coasts.
Feltgen warned residents not to be lulled into a false sense of
security by the lack of recent storm activity.
“Remain vigilant, check in every once in a while, and see what’s
going on in the tropics,” he said. “Don’t raid your hurricane supplies yet.”
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