GENEVA, Switzerland — The exceptionally-long
La Nina, which has worsened drought and flooding around the globe, is set to
continue into February or even March, the
UN warned Wednesday.
اضافة اعلان
The current La Nina weather phenomenon — the cooling
of surface temperatures which can cause widespread impacts on global weather
conditions — started in September 2020.
“The unusually stubborn and protracted La Nina event
is likely to last until the end of the northern hemisphere winter/southern
hemisphere summer,” the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.
“The first ‘triple-dip’ La Nina (three consecutive
years) of the 21st century will continue to affect temperature and
precipitation patterns and exacerbate drought and flooding in different parts
of the world.”
The WMO said there was a 75 percent chance that La
Nina will persist during December–February, and a 60 percent chance during
January-March.
It is the first triple-dip La Nina of the century
and only the third since 1950, the organization said.
La Nina is the large-scale cooling of surface
temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial
Pacific Ocean. It normally
occurs every two to seven years.
The effect has widespread impacts on weather around
the world — typically the opposite impacts to the El Nino phenomenon, which has
a warming influence on global temperatures. Conditions oscillate between the
two.
There is a 55 percent chance of neutral conditions
(neither El Nino or La Nina) emerging during February–April 2023, increasing to
about 70 percent in March-May, according to WMO.
Limited cooling impact
La Nina is a natural phenomenon, but it is taking place against a
background of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global
temperatures and making weather more extreme, the WMO said.
Despite La Nina’s
cooling effect, both 2022 and 2021 were warmer than any year prior to 2015.
The event “has
only had a limited and temporary cooling impact on global temperatures”, said
WMO chief Petteri Taalas.
“The past eight
years are set to be the hottest on record and sea level rise and ocean warming
has accelerated.”
La Nina is
usually associated with wetter conditions in some parts of the world, and drier
conditions in others.
Global weather
outlook
Somalia is in a desperate race against time to avert famine, having
suffered four consecutive failed rainy seasons since the end of 2020 and with a
fifth now happening.
The WMO warned
that below-average rainfall is also considered likely during the March–May 2023
rainy season.
Despite La Nina,
widespread warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures are predicted to dominate
the air temperatures forecast for December to February.
This will
contribute to above-normal temperatures on land in the northern hemisphere, the
WMO said, except for northwestern North America.
The largest
increases in the likelihood for above-normal temperatures are along the Arctic
coast of Asia, northern parts of central America, the eastern parts of
southeast Asia, and New Zealand.
The last La Nina,
which was brief and relatively weak, began developing in November 2017 and
ended in April 2018.
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