DUBAI —
Choosing sides in Ukraine’s crisis would have once been easy for Gulf States
long protected by the US, but growing ties with Moscow are forcing them to
strike a balance.
اضافة اعلان
As the world rushed to condemn the Russian
invasion of its smaller neighbor, the wealthy
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have
largely kept quiet.
Middle East experts say their reticence is
understandable given what is at play: energy, money and security.
“It is not only the economic ties that are
growing, but also the security ties of these states with Moscow,” said Anne
Gadel, a Gulf expert and contributor to the French think-tank Institut
Montaigne.
On Friday, the
UAE abstained along with China
and India from a vote at the
UN Security Council demanding that Moscow withdraw
its troops.
Russia, as expected, vetoed the resolution
co-written by the US and Albania while 11 of the council’s 15 members voted for
it.
After the vote, Emirati state news agency WAM
said the UAE and US foreign ministers spoke by phone to review “global
developments”. No mention was made of
Ukraine.
Russia’s foreign ministry meanwhile announced
that the UAE and Russian foreign ministers would meet Monday in Moscow to
discuss “further expanding multifaceted Russia-UAE relations”.
Gulf power house Saudi Arabia has not reacted
to the invasion, like the UAE,
Bahrain and Oman. Kuwait and Qatar have only
denounced the violence, stopping short of criticizing Moscow.
For more than seven decades, the US has
played a key role in the conflict-wracked
Middle East, serving in particular as
a defender of the oil-rich Gulf monarchies against potential threats such as
Iran.
Saudi oil giant Aramco’s facilities were hit
in 2019 by the Iran-aligned insurgents.
Gulf countries “understand that they need to
diversify their alliances to compensate for the perceived withdrawal of the
United States from the region”, said Gadel.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two US allies
hosting
American troops, have seen their ties with Washington change to a
love-hate relationship over arms deals and rights issues.
“Russia is seen as an ideological ally while
American human rights strings attached to their support are becoming ever more
of an issue,” said
Andreas Krieg, Middle East expert and associate professor at
King’s College London.
“There has been an integration of grand
strategy between Moscow and Abu Dhabi when it comes to the region. Both are
counter-revolutionary forces and were eager to contain political Islam.”
Despite growing security cooperation with
Russia, which is directly involved in the Syrian and Libyan conflicts, Krieg
says most GCC states will “still put their security eggs into the US basket”.
Trade between Russia and the
GCC countries
jumped from around $3 billion in 2016 to more than $5 billion in 2021, mostly
with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, official figures show.
As major players in the energy markets, most
GCC states have a relationship with Russia as fellow producers.
Riyadh and Moscow are leading the
OPEC+ alliance, strictly controlling output to buoy prices in recent years.
“Arab members of OPEC are in a tough spot
diplomatically, as maintaining” the OPEC+ deal, which controls production, “is
clearly at the forefront of their considerations,” said Ellen Wald, senior
fellow at the Atlantic Council think-tank.
“Gulf countries fear damaging this
relationship and seek to maintain Russian participation in OPEC+... If Russia
left the group, the entire agreement would probably collapse.”
Despite calls by some major oil importers for
crude producers to boost supply and help stabilize soaring prices, Riyadh, the
world’s top exporter, has shown no interest.
“Staying silent on
Russian action in Ukraine
is probably the best course for this at the moment,” Wald said.
“But this pragmatic stance may become untenable if
pressed on their position by Western leaders.”
Read more Region and World
.jpg)
.jpg)
