DOHA — Leading gas producers meet in Qatar from Sunday
to discuss how to answer frantic world demand, but Russian President
Vladimir Putin is expected to stay away as Ukraine tensions soar, diplomats said.
اضافة اعلان
The 11-member Gas Exporting Countries Forum holds its summit
as the Ukraine showdown sends prices ever higher while Europe fears for its
supplies from Russia.
The group that includes Russia, Qatar, Iran, Libya, Algeria,
and Nigeria — accounting for more than 70 percent of proven gas reserves — has
faced mounting pressure as
Europe has sought alternative suppliers to Russia.
But most say they are already at or near maximum production
and can only send short term relief supplies to Europe if existing customers
agree.
Diplomats who took part in preparatory meetings said the
group — which excludes key producers
Australia and the
US — will discuss ways
to increase production in the medium term.
"But their hands are tied, there is next to no spare
gas," said one, speaking on condition of anonymity.
After two days of ministerial meetings, Iran's President
Ebrahim Raisi, who has rarely left his country since taking office, is to join
Qatar's emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, for the main summit on Tuesday.
President Abdelmadjid Tebboune of Algeria will also be present with other
government leaders.
Putin is not expected to take up his invitation despite his
country's importance, diplomats said.
Thierry Bros, a professor at the
Institute of Political Studies in Paris who specialises in the gas industry, said Russia has a dominant
role in the industry as its Gazprom giant is the only enterprise with spare
capacity.
"So it is Putin who decides, and he decides at the
Kremlin."
Contract demands
Bros said the forum would probably reaffirm its message to
Europe that it needs to sign long term contracts to secure a guaranteed supply.
All producing countries will have to make massive
investments to increase their output, but the
European Union has long resisted
contracts of 10, 15 or 20 years. Now, however, it has vowed to transition to
clean energies and also faces the Ukraine crisis.
"The meeting is interesting because there are the
Russians, with whom we no longer like to speak, and the Qataris, who are big
friends with the
European Commission, again to try to get liquefied gas.
"For Russia and Qatar, the aim is to maximize revenues
and guarantee a long term market for their gas commodity," he said.
Ukraine link
Qatar has increasingly sought to boost its diplomatic sway
as a mediator and facilitator, so the
Ukraine crisis could also be discussed,
according to Andreas Krieg, a security specialist at King's College London.
"Qatar could use this forum to reach out to Russia over
Ukraine as all parties are concerned over what an escalation in the crisis
would mean to global gas supply security."
He said Russia may want contacts with Qatar as European
customers look to the emirate as an alternative supplier.
Russia currently has
a 40 percent share of the European market and Qatar five percent.
"It would be quite an opportunity if
Qatar could use
the forum to offer their good offices to the US to mediate between them and
Russia in this crisis."
Qatar and Iran also have overlapping gas interests in the
Gulf and the emirate has been seeking to help diplomatic efforts to revive a
2015 nuclear deal between Iran and major powers.
"Sanctions relief for
Iran would ultimately also affect
the gas sector and gas exports, which would be conducive to the forum's overall
objective of maintaining gas supply security," Krieg said.
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