LONDON/DUBAI — OPEC and its allies on Wednesday
agreed to stick to their existing policy of gradual oil output increases,
despite revising its 2022 demand outlook upwards and ongoing US pressure to
raise production more quickly.
اضافة اعلان
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
and allies led by Russia agreed in July to phase out record output cuts by
adding 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil a month.
Wednesday's decision means that OPEC+ will release 400,000
bpd to the market in October again, after already doing so in September. The
next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for October 4.
"While the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to
cast some uncertainty, market fundamentals have strengthened and OECD stocks
continue to fall as the recovery accelerates," OPEC+ said in a statement.
OPEC+ experts on Tuesday revised the 2022 oil demand growth
forecast to 4.2 million bpd, up from a previous 3.28 million bpd, potentially
building the case for higher output in future.
The 2022 outlook looks optimistic based on 2021 data. OPEC+
expects demand to grow by 5.95 million bpd after a record drop of about 9
million bpd in 2020 due to the pandemic, but demand only rose by some 3 million
bpd in the first half of 2021.
"Demand has disappointed relative to lofty expectations
and there are still headwinds, particularly in Asia. We only expect demand to
rise back to 2019 levels in the second half of 2022," said Amrita Sen,
co-founder of Energy Aspects think-tank.
The United States has called for speedier output increases
by OPEC+ as benchmark Brent crude traded above $70 per barrel, close to
multiyear highs.
The OPEC+ joint technical committee (JTC) on Tuesday
presented an updated report on the oil market in 2021-2022.
OPEC+ sources said on Tuesday that this report, which has
not been made public, forecast a 0.9 million bpd deficit this year as global
demand recovers.
The report had initially forecast a surplus of 2.5 million
bpd in 2022 but this was later revised to 1.6 million bpd due to stronger
demand, the sources said.
As a result, commercial oil inventories in the OECD, a group
of mostly developed countries, would remain below the 2015–2019 average until
May 2022 rather than the initial forecast for January 2022, the JTC
presentation showed, the sources said.
Rystad Energy’s head of oil markets Bjornar Tonhaugen said
it was not yet clear "whether demand will be able to grow as quickly as
OPEC+ and the market predicts, given the risk of new lockdowns to fight the
unresolved COVID-mutant spread."
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