DUBAI, UAE — The pandemic will have no long-term
impact on the need for new aircraft, according to a market outlook released
Saturday by
European plane maker Airbus, which foresees greener fleets emitting
less CO2.
اضافة اعلان
There would be demand for 39,020 new passenger and freighter
aircraft by 2040, bringing the global fleet to 46,720, the company said,
releasing its outlook ahead of the Dubai Airshow's opening on Sunday.
The forecast is not far off the 39,210 planes Airbus
estimated in its 20-year market forecast issued in September 2019 — before a
COVID-induced downturn which will still leave airlines with close to $52
billion in losses this year.
While Airbus has returned to profit and delivered 460
aircraft in the first 10 months of the year, its US rival Boeing is still
losing money and has supplied just 268 planes.
Yet Boeing projects new deliveries in the industry to total
43,610 by 2040, or roughly the same as the 43,315 forecast by aviation data
firm Cirium.
Global air traffic has started to bounce back from the worst
of its pandemic decline, though in October it was still around half the level
before the global health crisis idled aircraft.
"Our industry is extremely resilient, the only thing is
that we've lost two years of traffic because of the pandemic," Christian
Scherer, chief commercial officer and head of Airbus International, told
reporters in Dubai.
The market is only expected to return to pre-pandemic levels
between 2023 and 2025.
Domestic air travel is doing better — which benefits Airbus
and its A320 family of narrow-body aircraft.
"While having lost nearly two years of growth over the
COVID period, passenger traffic has demonstrated its resilience and is set to
reconnect to an annual growth of 3.9 percent per year," Airbus said in the
statement.
"The middle classes, who are the likeliest to fly, will
grow in number by two billion people to 63 percent of the world's
population."
Under pressure
Growth would be fastest in Asia, with China's domestic
market becoming the largest.
Close to 40 percent of the industry's new planes would be
for replacement, according to Airbus, which sees demand shifting "from
fleet growth to the accelerated retirement of older, less fuel-efficient
aircraft".
Compared with previous generations of planes the newest
versions save 15-20 percent on fuel, reducing the carbon emissions which
contribute to global warming.
With the industry under pressure to further reduce its
carbon footprint, Airbus will present at the airshow a model of its
ZEROe concept hydrogen-burning airplane which would eliminate CO2 emissions.
Boeing will show off its
ecoDemonstrator aircraft, a version
of the 737 MAX used to try out new and cleaner technologies.
"By 2040 the vast majority of commercial aircraft in
operation will be of the latest generation, up from some 13 percent
today," the Airbus statement said.
The Dubai Airshow starts while the Glasgow COP26 climate
conference to limit global warming is ending.
Airlines will have to invest in newer planes that pollute
less to meet a pledge by the
International Air Transport Association (IATA) to
reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Replacement of aircraft was "today's most significant
driver for decarburization," said Scherer.
"The world is expecting more sustainable flying and
this will be made possible in the short-term by the introduction of most modern
airplanes," he said in the Airbus statement.
Three-quarters of the foreseen industry demand would be from
what Airbus calls "small aircraft", which include its single-aisle
A220 and A320, as well as Boeing's 737.
About 5,300 aircraft would fall into the medium category
which includes the A330neo and the future A321 XLR — which has extended range —
while Airbus foresees industry demand for "large" aircraft at around
4,000 over the two-decade period.
This segment includes its widebody A350, as well as Boeing's
787 Dreamliner and 777.
On the cargo side, Airbus sees industry demand for 880 newly
built freighters.
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