If the start of spring break is any indication — when an
average of more than 1 million flyers a day passed through security at US
airports — domestic summer travel is poised to pop.
اضافة اعلان
Airlines have been expanding their route networks,
especially in vacation destinations, as competition for leisure travelers heats
up. Leisure travelers are expected to lead the recovery as business travel
continues to lag.
Here are five things to keep in mind about flying this
summer.
The skies will be busier, and the planes fuller.
According to airline industry group Airlines for America,
passenger volume on US carriers was down 53 percent in mid-March compared with
pre-COVID-19 levels, but up from the darkest days of the pandemic, when it
bottomed out below 90 percent.
With the soft bounce, only Delta Air Lines has continued to
block middle seats through April. It would not comment on an extension. (Alaska
Airlines is keeping middle seats open in its Premium Class through May 31.)
“My expectation is that Delta is going to get rid of the
blocked middle seat policy,” said Henry Harteveldt, president of travel
consultancy Atmosphere Research Group, citing continuing vaccinations for
building traveler confidence and competition from other airlines. “Delta
realizes it will have to compete more on price than in the past.”
Though the average plane in recent weeks has been about 64
percent full, summer is looking busier. The airfare app Hopper found searches
for domestic summer travel rose nearly 60 percent since February 20, a level
comparable to searches in January 2020, before the coronavirus had been
declared a pandemic.
Higher airfares are headed into low-cost headwinds.
With more people traveling, airfares will go up, according
to Peter Belobaba, who researches the global airline industry at Massachusetts
Institute of Technology. But travelers can expect prices to yo-yo as airlines
carefully manage seat pricing.
“It’s difficult to get a cheap fare to Honolulu on a Friday,
but it’s pretty easy to get a low fare to Boise on a Tuesday morning,” he said.
Hopper predicts summer airfares to increase by about 12
percent in May, but to stay low, with the average domestic round-trip flight
estimated to top out around $257 in midsummer, compared with about $230 now.
But without business travelers who tend to spend more and
fly more, airlines will lack the power to raise fares significantly. Trade
organization Global Business Travel Association doesn’t expect a full business
travel recovery before 2025.
The expansion of low-cost carriers during the pandemic is
likely to keep prices down.
Flexible terms will tighten as voucher dates loosen.
During the pandemic, most airlines eliminated their
cancellation and change fees (though Southwest never charged them), but the
rules are changing for some of the cheapest fares.
By April, basic economy tickets at American and Delta will
become nonrefundable and nonchangeable, as they were before the pandemic.
United said it had not decided whether to extend the waiver on basic fares past
Wednesday.
Beginning March 31, JetBlue passengers buying the carrier’s
basic fare will be subject to change and cancellation fees.
Ultra-low-cost carriers are also ditching waivers. Spirit is
suspending fees on tickets booked only through the end of March. After March
30, change fees at Frontier Airlines will range from zero to $59, depending on
when a ticket is changed.
Many travelers who had to cancel their plans since the
pandemic have received vouchers for use on future flights that normally expire
after a year. A study by TripActions, a business travel management company,
found that 55 percent of vouchers for unused tickets will expire in 2021, and
45 percent in 2022.
The fight for refunds from pandemic-related cancellations
continues. This month, Consumer Reports and the US Public Interest Research
Group sent a letter to 10 airlines demanding refunds if requested — citing
nearly 90,000 refund complaints received by the Department of Transportation in
2020, representing 87 percent of all complaints about airlines — and an
extension of voucher expirations to the end of 2022.
While several airlines have extended the expiration dates
through 2021 or 2022, it’s important to read the fine print on the form of
credit issued by an airline as terms vary.
“Even in extending vouchers, airlines are trying to do anything
they can to engender goodwill among travelers, but also to try to hold onto
travelers’ money,” said Scott Keyes, the founder of Scott’s Cheap Flights.
Passengers will still be masking between bites.
Move over, Biscoff cookies. Chicken wraps and Coca-Cola are
poised to make a comeback.
During the pandemic, many airlines reduced or eliminated
food service, but this summer, Frontier Airlines plans to resume food sales.
United said it will adjust its policies in the coming weeks. Southwest plans to
add soft drinks in addition to cups of water with its snacks. Delta put in
effect a new touchless paying system on March 16 for onboard sales, currently
limited to earbuds, but expected to expand to food and drink.
“This is one of the biggest gripes passengers have about
flying right now,” Harteveldt said, noting that in many airports, concessions
remain closed, making it hard for travelers to bring their own food on board.
“If health considerations are improving to where restaurants can reopen and if
industry-funded research shows airplanes are one of the cleanest and safest
places to be, and you layer in vaccinations, I think airlines have no choice
than to plan to resume cabin service.”
Most observers say the protocols airlines put in place to
make the public feel safe about flying — especially deep cleaning and mask
mandates — will continue.
Airlines had mask mandates before the Biden administration’s
executive order went into effect February 1. Under the order, the Transportation
Security Administration requires masks in airports and on planes until May 11.
A TSA spokesperson said it was too soon to say what will
happen after that date, but given airline support, masks are likely to be
required going forward.
“Airlines for America carriers have been requiring
face-coverings for all passengers and customer-facing employees since last
April, and this policy will remain in place for the duration of the pandemic,”
wrote Katherine Estep, a spokesperson for the group, in an email.
A recent J.D. Power survey of more than 1,500 travelers in
airports found 58 percent said requiring masks was the most important safety
measure for airports to adopt; 42 percent said they would likely continue
mask-wearing and social distancing through 2021 and beyond.
Even if you can eat in the air, don’t expect to remove the
masks for prolonged periods. “Masks must be worn between bites and sips,”
United says on its website.
There will be easier access to the great outdoors.
The lack of international and business travel has scrambled
the airline route map. Flights to international business destinations like
London and Frankfurt, Germany, were trimmed in favor of more flights to
vacation destinations, particularly in Florida and Mountain States like
Montana.
Comparing March 2021 with March 2019, nearly all states saw
declines in scheduled flights. Only traffic to South Dakota and Montana grew.
Most carriers are announcing new service to leisure
destinations in time for summer and in many cases are offering convenient
point-to-point service, modeled on low-cost carriers, rather than routing
flyers through hubs.
There are new flights to Honolulu from Austin, Texas, coming
in April on Hawaiian Airlines. With partners JetBlue and Alaska, American is
adding 10 routes from Austin. Southwest plans to extend its original winter
service to Telluride and Steamboat Springs, Colorado, through the summer.
JetBlue recently added Miami and Key West, Florida, and Allegiant is new to Key
West, Jackson, Wyoming, and Portland, Oregon. And United plans to add more than
two dozen new flights starting Memorial Day weekend.
While the trend may be rural, bargains remain in cities.
“US cities are very affordable this summer, and appear
poised to make a comeback,” Mel Dohmen, a spokesperson at online travel agency
Orbitz, wrote in an email, noting flights to Chicago, New York City, San
Francisco, Los Angeles and Seattle are all cheaper this July compared with July
2019
.jpg)
.jpg)
