For a world weary of fighting the coronavirus, the
monkeypox
outbreak poses a key question: Am I at risk?
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The answer is reassuring. Most children and adults with healthy
immune systems are likely to dodge severe illness, experts said in interviews.
But there are two high-risk groups.
One comprises infants younger than six months. But they are not
yet affected by the current outbreak. And many older adults, the group most
likely to succumb to the monkeypox virus, are at least somewhat protected by
decades-old smallpox vaccinations, studies suggest.
Vaccinated older adults might become infected but are likely to
escape with only mild symptoms.
“The bottom line is that even those that were vaccinated many
decades before maintain a very, very high level of antibodies and the ability
to neutralize the virus,” said Dr. Luigi Ferrucci, scientific director of the
National Institute on Aging.
“Even if they were vaccinated 50 years ago, that protection
should still be there,” he said.
In the United States, routine immunization for smallpox ceased
in 1972. The military continued its vaccination program until 1991 as a
precaution against a bioterrorism attack.
Questions about the smallpox vaccine’s durability rose after an
anthrax attack in 2001, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Biden administration’s top
adviser on infectious diseases. It was reasonable to assume that most
vaccinated people were still protected, he said, “but durability of protection
varies from person to person.”
“We can’t guarantee that a person who was vaccinated against
smallpox is still going to be protected against monkeypox,” Fauci said.
The monkeypox outbreak has grown to include about 260 confirmed cases
and scores more under investigation in 21 countries. The infection begins with
respiratory symptoms but blooms into a distinct rash, first in the mouth, then
the palms of the hand and soles of the feet, and gradually the rest of the
body. The rash eventually becomes raised, growing into pus-filled blisters.
Each pustule contains live virus, and a ruptured blister can
contaminate bed linens and other items, putting close contacts at risk.
Infected people should also be very careful about rubbing their eyes because
the virus can destroy sight.
“Before Jenner had developed the smallpox vaccine, the number
one cause of blindness in the world was smallpox,” said Mark Slifka, an
immunologist at Oregon Health and Science University. Infected people are
contagious until the pustules scab over and slough off, he said.
Slifka and other experts emphasized that while monkeypox can be
severe and even fatal, the current outbreak is unlikely to swell into a large
epidemic.
“We’re lucky to have vaccines and therapeutics — things that can
mitigate all that,” said Anne Rimoin, an epidemiologist at the University of
California, Los Angeles, who has studied monkeypox in Africa. “We do have the
ability to stop this virus.”
Monkeypox takes up to 12 days to cause symptoms, giving doctors
a window of at least five days after exposure to vaccinate and forestall
disease. (The approach, called post-exposure prophylaxis, is not an option for
COVID patients because the coronavirus can start to ravage the body just a
couple days after exposure.)
The monkeypox virus does not spread in the absence of symptoms.
Careful surveillance, isolation of infected people, contact tracing and
quarantine of contacts should contain the outbreak, Rimoin said.
A majority of those infected currently are men under 50, and
many identify as gay or bisexual, which may reflect the outbreak’s possible
origins at a Gay Pride event in the Canary Islands. (The outbreak could just as
easily have started among heterosexual people at a large event, experts said.)
No deaths have been reported. But experts are particularly
concerned about close contacts who are children, older adults or who have weak
immune systems for other reasons.
There are conflicting opinions on how long immunity from a
smallpox vaccination lasts.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends
boosters of smallpox vaccines every three years but only “for persons at risk
of occupation exposure,” David Daigle, a spokesman for the agency, said in a
statement.
“Until we know more, we will be using available vaccine stocks
for people who’ve had close contact with known cases, and people at highest
risk for exposure through their jobs, like health care workers treating
monkeypox patients,” he said.
The United States and several European countries have begun
immunizing close contacts of infected patients, an approach called ring
vaccination.
Many of the most vulnerable groups might already be protected.
In one study, Slifka and his colleagues drew blood from 306 vaccinated
volunteers, some of whom had been immunized decades earlier, including one who
had been immunized 75 years before. Most of them maintained high levels of
antibodies to smallpox.
In another study, Slifka and his colleagues showed that
antibodies produced by even a single dose of the smallpox vaccine decline very
slowly in the body, dropping to half after about 92 years.
Laboratory evidence of antibodies does not prove that smallpox
vaccination can protect against monkeypox. But answering that question would
require that study participants be deliberately infected with smallpox or a
related virus, an obviously unethical experiment.
For the same reason, newer smallpox vaccines and drugs have been
tested only in animals.
Questions about the durability of vaccine protection against
monkeypox have taken on particular significance as the number of cases
worldwide has risen. Monkeypox re-emerged among people in Nigeria in 2017, and
there have since been about 200 confirmed cases and 500 suspected cases.
Congo has recorded 58 deaths and nearly 1,300 suspected cases
since the beginning of this year.
People in African villages used to contract monkeypox from
animals while hunting but rarely infected others. “It’s only very recently,
like, just the last few years, when we started to see this,” Rimoin said of
bigger outbreaks.
The eradication of smallpox, while one of the greatest
achievements in public health, has left populations vulnerable to the virus and
to its cousins.
Diminishing immunity, coupled with a rise in population and
increased proximity to wild animals, could result in more frequent monkeypox
outbreaks, Rimoin and her colleagues warned in 2010.
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