It was sleek, cone-shaped, a little confusing — like
something Hollywood would give a sci-fi villain for a quick getaway.
It wasn’t a helicopter. And it wasn’t an airplane. It was a
cross between the two, with a curved hull, two small wings and eight spinning
rotors lined up across its nose and tail.
اضافة اعلان
At the touch of a button on a computer screen under a nearby
tent, it stirred to life, rising up from a grassy slope on a ranch in central California
and speeding toward some cattle grazing under a tree — who did not react in the
slightest.
“It may look like a strange beast, but it will change the
way transportation happens,” said Marcus Leng, the Canadian inventor who
designed this aircraft, which he named BlackFly.
BlackFly is what is often called a flying car. Engineers and
entrepreneurs like Leng have spent more than a decade nurturing this new breed
of aircraft, electric vehicles that can take off and land without a runway.
They believe these vehicles will be cheaper and safer than
helicopters, providing practically anyone with the means of speeding above
crowded streets.
“Our dream is to free the world from traffic,” said
Sebastian Thrun, another engineer at the heart of this movement.
That dream, most experts agree, is a long way from reality.
But the idea is gathering steam. Dozens of companies are now building these
aircraft, and three recently agreed to go public in deals that value them as
high as $6 billion. For years, people like Leng and Thrun have kept their
prototypes hidden from the rest of the world — few people have seen them, much
less flown in them — but they are now beginning to lift the curtain.
Leng’s company, Opener, is building a single-person aircraft
for use in rural areas — essentially a private flying car for the rich — that
could start selling this year. Others are building larger vehicles they hope to
deploy as city air taxis as soon as 2024 — an Uber for the skies. Some are
designing vehicles that can fly without a pilot.
One of the air taxi companies, Kitty Hawk, is run by Thrun,
the Stanford University computer science professor who founded Google’s
self-driving car project. He now says that autonomy will be far more powerful
in the air than on the ground, and that it will enter our daily lives much
sooner. “You can fly in a straight line and you don’t have the massive weight
or the stop-and-go of a car” on the ground, he said.
The rise of the flying car mirrors that of self-driving
vehicles in ways both good and bad, from the enormous ambition to the
multibillion-dollar investments to the cutthroat corporate competition,
including a high-profile lawsuit alleging intellectual property theft. It also
re-creates the enormous hype.
It is a risky comparison. Google and other self-driving
companies did not deliver on the grand promise that robo-taxis would be zipping
around our cities by now, dramatically reshaping the economy.
But that has not stopped investors and transportation
companies from dumping billions more into flying cars. It has not stopped
cities from striking deals they believe will create vast networks of air taxis.
And it has not stopped technologists from forging full steam ahead with their
plans to turn sci-fi into reality.
‘The Wild West of aviation
The spreadsheet was filled with numbers detailing the rapid
progress of electric motors and rechargeable batteries, and Larry Page, Google
co-founder, brought it to dinner.
It was 2009. Many startups and weekend hobbyists were
building small flying drones with those motors and batteries, but as he sat
down for a meal with Thrun, Page believed they could go much further.
Thrun had only just launched Google’s self-driving car
project that year, but his boss had an even wilder idea: cars that could fly.
“When you squinted your eyes and looked at those numbers,
you could see it,” Thrun remembered.
The pair started meeting regularly with aerospace engineers
inside an office building just down the road from Google headquarters in
Mountain View, California. Page’s personal chef made meals for his guests,
including a NASA engineer named Mark Moore and several aircraft designers from
Stanford.
Those meetings were a free flow of ideas that eventually led
to a sprawling, multibillion-dollar effort to reinvent daily transportation
with flying cars. Over the past decade, the same small group of engineers and
entrepreneurs fed a growing list of projects. Moore helped launch an effort at
Uber, before starting his own company. Page funneled money into multiple
startups, including Leng’s company,
Opener, and Thrun’s, Kitty Hawk. New
companies poached countless designers from Page’s many startups.
“It is the Wild West of aviation,” Moore said. “It is a time
of rapid change, big moves and big money.”
The next few years will be crucial to the industry as it
transitions from what Silicon Valley is known for — building cutting-edge
technology — to something much harder: the messy details of actually getting it
into the world.
BlackFly is classified by the government as an experimental
“ultralight” vehicle, so it does not need regulatory approval before being
sold. But an ultralight also cannot be flown over cities or other bustling
areas.
As it works to ensure the vehicle is safe, Opener does most
of its testing without anyone riding in the aircraft. But the idea is that a
person will sit in the cockpit and pilot the aircraft solo over rural areas.
Buyers can learn to fly via virtual reality simulations, and the aircraft will
include autopilot services like a “return to home” button that lands the plane
on command.
It has enough room for a 6-foot, 6-inch person, and it can
fly for about 25 miles without recharging. The few Opener employees who have
flown it describe an exhilarating rush, like driving a Tesla through the sky —
an analogy that will not be lost on the company’s target customer.
Leng sees all this as a step toward the starry future
envisioned by “The Jetsons,” the classic cartoon in which flying cars are
commonplace. “I have always had a dream that we could have unfettered three-dimensional
freedom like a bird does — that we can take off and just fly around,” he said.
BlackFly will initially be far more expensive than your
average car (perhaps costing $150,000 or more). And its combination of battery
life and mileage is not yet as powerful as most anyone’s daily commute
requires.
But Leng believes this technology will improve, prices will
drop to “the cost of an SUV” and the world will ultimately embrace the idea of
electric urban flight. By putting his vehicle into the hands of a relative few
people, he argues, he can open the eyes of many more.
Others in the field are skeptical. They estimate it will be
years — or even decades — before regulators will allow just anyone to fly such
a vehicle over cities. And they say the technology is too important and
transformative to remain a plaything for millionaires. So they are betting on
something very different.
‘It is going to take longer than people think’
When Thrun watches his flying vehicle — Heaviside — rise up
from its own grassy landing pad, he sees more than just the trees, hills and
crags of the California test site. He envisions an American suburbia where his
aircraft ferries people to their front doors sometime in the future.
Yes, there are regulatory hurdles and other practical
matters. These planes will need landing pads, and they could have trouble
navigating dense urban areas, thanks to power lines and other low-flying
aircraft.
There is also the noise factor, a crucial selling point over
loud combustion engine helicopters. Sitting a few hundred feet from the
vehicle, Thrun boasted about how quiet the aircraft was, but when it took off,
he had no choice but to stop talking. He could not be heard over the whir of
the rotors.
Even so, Thrun says Kitty Hawk will build an Uber-like
ride-hailing service, in part, because of simple economics. Heaviside is even
more expensive than BlackFly; Thrun said it costs around $300,000 to
manufacture. But with a ride-hailing service, companies can spread the cost
across many riders.
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