KABUL — Few nations endured as tumultuous a
year as
Afghanistan in 2021, and the country's woes are far from over as a
bitter winter draws in.
اضافة اعلان
The
Taliban's astonishing return to power
caught everyone on the wrong foot — not least the hardline Islamists themselves
— and Afghans are stumbling to make sense of what happened, and what the future
holds.
For the Taliban, the biggest challenge
remains being able to transform from an insurgent force into an administrative
body that can govern a complex and diverse nation.
For Western nations such as the US and its
NATO partners, the fear is twofold: that conditions will deteriorate and prompt
tens of thousands more Afghans to flee abroad, and that terror groups such as
Al-Qaeda will again find safe haven.
And for ordinary Afghans, food, shelter and
employment are a priority — with women in particular bearing the brunt of the
Taliban's oppressive social policies.
"The consequences of the takeover were
calamitous and immediate," Kate Clark wrote in a special report for the
Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN).
The Taliban, she argued, "had no plans
for how they would run the Afghan state without aid, an entirely predictable
outcome of their decision to push for a military victory".
"In opposition, they taxed the
population under their control effectively, but were able to leave public
services entirely up to the government, NGOs and ultimately donors," Clark
added.
"Now, in power ... (they) find
government revenues greatly reduced and they have an entire population to look
after."
Women and girls on front line
One of the biggest problems facing the
Taliban is the effective collapse of the bureaucracy.
Over 120,000 Afghans were evacuated in the
chaotic last days of the
US withdrawal — mostly people who had worked with
foreign powers in managing the aid-dependent administration and economy.
Many civil servants had not been paid for
months before the Taliban takeover, and have little incentive to go back to
work without knowing when they will get a salary.
Some of the Taliban's leadership have been
at pains to present the new regime as different to the hardline rule that
characterized their first stint in power from 1996 to 2001, and — superficially
at least — there have been some changes.
There has been no edict on women having to
again wear the face-covering burqa, for example, or to be accompanied by a men
in their families when leaving the house, though authorities say close male
relatives must accompany women on long-distance road trips.
But apart from essential services such as
healthcare, women are effectively barred from government work and high-school
girls from education in several provinces.
The Taliban have tried to justify their
decisions according to their definition of Islamic principles.
"It is for their own security,"
they say — turning a blind eye to the fact that the biggest threat to women and
girls' safety has for years come from the Islamists themselves.
With the Taliban in power, security has
undoubtedly improved, but brazen attacks by IS jihadists are on the rise —
particularly targeting the country's Shiite minority and also the Taliban
fighters.
But it is the teetering economy that will
dictate Afghanistan's future at a time when a major humanitarian crisis is
unfolding across the country described by the
UN as an "avalanche of
hunger".
Donors' dilemma
For humanitarians, it is a race against time
as nearly 23 million people, or 55 percent of the population, face "crisis
or emergency" levels of food insecurity this winter, the UN Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said.
Both the Taliban and foreign powers will
need to strike a delicate balance in the months ahead.
Donors are concerned about helping a pariah
regime, while the Taliban believe their victory should not be compromised by,
for instance, allowing women to work.
On Wednesday, the UN Security Council
adopted a US-proposed resolution to help humanitarian aid reach desperate Afghans
while seeking to keep funds out of Taliban hands.
The Islamists welcomed the move as a
"good step", though they deny the country faces a humanitarian
crisis.
At a local level, some aid organizations
have already been able to bypass Taliban officialdom and distribute essential
supplies directly to those in need.
Elsewhere, Taliban commanders insist they
have the sole right to hand out aid — to cement their authority and reward
loyalists.
But at the national level, the Taliban can't
be seen to be dictated to by foreign powers and organizations and the
leadership insists it must have control of funding and aid — something still
unpalatable to many donors.
"If all the assistance goes to the
poorest and most needy without discrimination –- a very tall order -– it would
still make it easier for the Taliban to focus their resources on strengthening
their control of the state," Clark wrote for AAN.
The road ahead is unclear.
"The economic benefits flowing from the
peace will still only be marginal nationally compared to the harm done by the
absolute loss in foreign income and the isolation Afghanistan now faces,"
said Clark.
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