WASHINGTON, DC— With the Taliban in control and
foreign aid blocked, Afghanistan's economy is likely to contract sharply as it
faces a shortage of cash, the nation's former central bank chief said Friday.
اضافة اعلان
"I don't want to say economic collapse, but I think
it's going to be (an) extremely challenging or difficult economic
situation," Ajmal Ahmady said, predicting GDP would shrink by 10 to 20
percent.
Ahmady, who fled the country just after Kabul fell to the
Taliban in mid-August, said international sanctions that block aid funding and
restrict access to $9 billion in reserves also could create a shortage of
domestic currency.
"Obviously, the access to dollars is going to be
severely curtailed. But there's also the question of local currency
afghanis" since the country has no local printing press, he said in a
discussion hosted by The Atlantic Council.
The central bank was expecting a shipment of two billion
afghanis from a Polish firm, and had signed a contract for another 100 billion
from a French company, but it is unlikely they will be able to deliver the
bills, Ahmady said.
Amid the cash crunch, "You're going to see the currency
depreciate (and) inflation rise because we import significant amounts of
food," he said.
"I think that's going to be another constraint for the
Taliban regime."
Even before the collapse of the civilian government,
Afghanistan "was already facing a triple shock" of the COVID-19
pandemic, a regional drought and the ongoing conflict.
Most of the country's reserves are held in the United
States, which is keeping them out of reach of the Taliban, while the IMF and
World Bank have frozen any lending programs with the country.
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