BAGHDAD —
Sanctions-hit Iran is consolidating its hold over neighboring Iraq, an economic
lifeline where pro-Tehran parties dominate politics, all to the chagrin of the
US, experts say.
اضافة اعلان
For years, Iraq has been caught in a
delicate balancing act between its two main allies Tehran and Washington.
After a 2003 US-led invasion toppled Iraqi
dictator
Saddam Hussein, Iran’s influence has grown through political links
among both countries’ Shiite-Muslim majorities.
Pro-Iran parties now dominate Iraq’s
parliament, and in October they named a new prime minister following a
year-long scuffle with their Shiite rivals.
Iraq has become an “economic lifeline” for
Iran, said Ihsan Al-Shammari, a political scientist at the
University of Baghdad.
This is “even more so with sharpening
Western economic sanctions and nuclear negotiations that do not seem to be
leading to a favorable deal for Iran”, Shammari said.
“Iran’s role will be even more important
than during previous (Iraqi) governments”
During a visit to Tehran late last month,
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani and Iranian officials urged greater
bilateral cooperation in all fields.
He thanked Iran which provides gas and
electricity — around one-third of Iraq’s needs — and added this would continue
until Iraq was self-sufficient.
His country is already the number one
importer of Iranian goods.
In Shammari’s view, Tehran has an “urgent
need” to keep Iraq close.
Under a 2015 nuclear deal with world powers,
Iran agreed to curbs on its atomic program in exchange for relief from
economically crippling sanctions.
The deal began unraveling in 2018 when
then-president
Donald Trump withdrew the US, and reimposed financial penalties
including a ban on Iran’s oil exports. Efforts to revive the nuclear deal since
then have largely stalled.
Western countries have imposed additional
sanctions following Iran’s crackdown on protests that have rocked the country
since September.
Iran accuses exiled Kurdish opposition
groups of fomenting the unrest, and has carried out cross-border strikes in
Iraq against them.
“Iraq is contested by the United States and
Iran, with Turkey in third place in the north,” said Fabrice Balanche, from
France’s Lumiere Lyon 2 university.
“With a pro-Iranian figure at the head of
the government, Iran will be able to further take advantage of the Iraqi
economy,” he added, referring to Sudani, who is close to pro-Iran former prime
minister Nuri Al-Maliki.
Iran’s influence can also be seen through
its links with Iraq’s Hashed Al-Shaabi, a former paramilitary force made up
mainly of pro-Iran militias that have since been integrated into the regular
forces.
The Hashed played a major role in defeating
Daesh in Iraq and now has a significant presence in the country’s politics.
Its representatives are part of the
Coordination Framework parliamentary bloc, which controls 138 of the
legislature’s 329 seats and is made up of pro-Iran factions, including that of
Maliki.
Last month, Iraq’s government handed the
Hashed control of a new public company, endowed with around $68 million in
capital.
The Al-Muhandis firm’s mission in oil-rich
but war-ravaged Iraq is “provincial rehabilitation and development:
infrastructure, housing, hospitals, factories”, said a Hashed communications
official on condition of anonymity, in keeping with the low profile officials
have adopted over the project.
The company’s name is in homage to Hashed
deputy commander Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis. He was killed in a US drone strike in
Baghdad in 2020 along with Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, who headed that
country’s Quds Force, the foreign operations arm of the Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps.
In November, Iraqi Foreign Minister
Fuad Hussein said it was “not fair” to consider his coalition government “an
attachment” to Iran’s.
The Iraqi Kurdish diplomat pointed to its
multi-party and multi-confessional make-up as showing “balance” between the
different forces.
But pro-Iran parties appear to now have free
rein, after rival Shiite leader Moqtada Sadr tried for months to name a prime
minister and prevent Sudani’s appointment.
The standoff led to deadly clashes in late
August that pitted Sadr supporters against Hashed members and the army.
As Iran’s influence grows, ally the US still
remains present, with around 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq as part of
ongoing efforts to combat Daesh.
Sudani has held several meetings with the US
ambassador Alina Romanowski since her appointment.
Balanche noted that Washington monitors
Iraq’s banking system to ensure Iran is not using it to evade existing
restrictions, and US influence is present via “the threat of financial
sanctions”.
“The United States is staying in Iraq so as not to
totally abandon the country to Iran,” he added.
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