TRIPOLI — Libya's military strongman Khalifa
Haftar is polishing his political image ahead of elections, after a crippling
rout on the battlefield and with his support waning at home and abroad,
analysts say.
اضافة اعلان
Haftar's eastern-based forces battled for more than a year
to seize the capital Tripoli in the west, but their defeat last June set the
stage for
UN-backed peace talks, a unity government and a nationwide poll
planned for December.
"He is hoping the elections will secure him a political
victory after his military defeat," said international relations professor
Miloud El-Hajj.
Haftar has emerged as a key player during the decade of
violence that followed the 2011 overthrow of dictator Moamer Kadhafi.
The field marshall has battled Islamist militants and had
built a solid base of support among eastern Libya's influential tribes — as
well as neighboring
Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia.
But two years since his self-styled Libyan National Army
launched its offensive to overthrow a Turkish-backed unity government in
Tripoli, the landscape is very different.
A formal truce last October set in motion a UN-led process
that led to the creation of an interim government tasked with unifying the
country's divided institutions, launching reconstruction efforts and preparing
for December polls.
Haftar kept a low profile throughout the talks, but in
recent weeks he has made a comeback with public rallies and pledges to build
three new towns and thousands of housing units for the families of
"martyrs".
"His tone and language have changed... He has dropped
his military discourse" in favor of pledges to improve living conditions,
said Hajj.
'Facing defiance'
Haftar built his power base around Libya's second city of
Benghazi, the eastern cradle of the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that toppled and
killed Kadhafi.
He found allies among the region's powerful tribes, who
provided much of the manpower for Haftar's various offensives.
But today, Haftar has "lost his base of
support", according to Libyan analyst Mahmoud Khalfallah.
"He no longer enjoys the indisputable support of the
tribes, who blame him for having involved their sons in a war in which many
died for nothing," Khalfallah added.
"He knows they no longer trust him and that they would
not give up their sons again for another war."
And despite several meetings with tribal leaders in a bid to
regain their support, Haftar is now faced with "serious problems of
defiance" according to Libya specialist Jalel Harchaoui.
"His finances have dried up and his hopes for
territorial expansion in the west have been blocked", Harchaoui added.
Even Haftar's foreign allies have grown wary and thrown
their weight behind the new interim government, Khalfallah said.
"His foreign sponsors... have understood that the
political process is the only possible solution" to safeguard their
interests in Libya, he said.
Haftar seeks 'political victory'
Haftar has played a controversial but key role in Libya
since it descended into chaos after Kadhafi's ouster.
Before the campaign to seize Tripoli, he launched a
successful operation in May 2018 to oust Islamist militias from the eastern
city of Derna, followed by another in 2019 in the oil-rich desert south.
The field marshal, who served in Kadhafi's armed forces
before falling from grace following Libya's stinging defeat in Chad in 1987, is
now aiming to make a political comeback, said Hajj.
One European diplomatic source warned that if key players
like Haftar are excluded from the political process, they could become
"spoilers" and undermine efforts to stabilize the country.
Verisk Maplecroft analyst Hamish Kinnear said Haftar may run
in a presidential election or back a candidate.
If presidential and legislative polls are postponed beyond
December, however, Haftar "will likely use this to charge the transitional
government is illegitimate and consider a return to armed conflict",
Kinnear said.
But, he added, Haftar is "no longer as powerful as he
once was".
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