WASHINGTON – The
International Monetary Fund (
IMF) reported on Wednesday that Israel's war on
Gaza "constituted a new shock" for
Middle Eastern and North African (
MENA) countries, stating that the war "caused immense human suffering and
exacerbated the difficult environment for neighboring and outside
economies."
اضافة اعلان
A newly released IMF
economic outlook report for the MENA confirmed that "recent developments
in the region have reduced the
expected growth for the region's countries for
this year by 0.5 percentage points to 2.9 percent (compared to its previous report
in
October 2023), compared to the already weak growth of 2 percent in 2023,
driven primarily by the ongoing war in Sudan," Al-Mamlaka TV reported.
The IMF predicts that
average growth in the region's low-income countries will remain
"negative" this year, continuing the sharp decline expected in 2023,
when inflation is expected to continue to fall in most of the region's
economies. However, price
pressures have proven to persist in some cases due to factors unique to each
nation.
According to the report,
the main factors influencing regional growth are the impact of the war, reduced
oil production, despite strong non-oil sector activity supporting growth in
many
oil-exporting countries, and the continuation of necessary strict policies
in many economies.
The IMF stated that the
outlook for the MENA region is "largely unclear and uncertain,"
noting that negative risks are emerging as a result of the escalation and
spread of tensions outside of Palestine and that the intense disturbances in
the Red Sea may "have a severe economic impact, including on trade and
tourism."
According to the IMF, the
appropriate political response will be determined by the extent to which
countries are exposed to the war's consequences, pre-existing weaknesses, and
political space, with crisis management and preventive policies being critical when the impact is severe or the
risks are high. In other regions, countries will need to maintain temporary
stocks.
The IMF urged monetary
policy to remain focused on price stability while also designing fiscal policy
that is appropriate for the country's needs and available financial space,
emphasizing the importance of structural reforms in boosting growth and resilience
in the short and long term.
Globally, recovery from
long-term shocks, such as the
COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian war on Ukraine,
and the cost-of-living crisis, has proven to be "amazingly
resilient," with economic growth stronger than expected in the second half
of 2023 in the US, China, and many emerging market and major developing
economies.
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