US uncertain about war on Gaza de-escalation timeline

Signaling potential extension until end of 2024

US National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk
US National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, Brett McGurk. (Photo: Twitter/X)
WASHINGTON — On Thursday, US National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, Brett McGurk stated that the White House does not know when Israel plans to transition to a less intense phase in its war on the Gaza Strip, suggesting that the aggression might continue until the end of 2024, Amad Media reported.اضافة اعلان

In a Zoom briefing with several experts, McGurk discussed the Biden administration's considerations regarding the ongoing war. According to three informed individuals who requested anonymity, McGurk was explicit about what the US knows and doesn't know about the developments in the war on Gaza.

The magazine Politico, quoting one of the sources, reported that McGurk said, “We do not know when the de-escalation will happen.”  However, he indicated that the US administration has seen encouraging signs that Israel is moving towards less intense operations, referencing the withdrawal of five brigades from Gaza.

The US administration expressed relief in recent days, anticipating that Israel will no longer conduct widespread airstrikes and ground operations that have killed over 22,000 Palestinians and displaced 85 percent of Gaza's residents.

No visible tactical shift
According to the magazine, McGurk's frankness suggests that the US administration has not yet seen any tangible signs of a tactical shift and that there is little visibility on when the change might occur, despite the public confidence expressed by the administration.

 The war on the strip could continue for a long period, possibly until the end of 2024, McGurk added, according to Israeli officials, with some of them publicly expecting the conflict to persist for months.

The magazine suggested that if this happens, it may increase the chances of the war spreading beyond its borders, potentially drawing the US further into a multi-party regional conflict, noting that US military is already formulating plans to respond to Iran-backed Houthi militants attacking shipping lanes in the Red Sea, and preparing to anticipate and counter possible attacks by Iran-backed forces in Iraq and Syria on the US.

Discussions also revolved around the return of Palestinians to their homes in northern Gaza, which has been destroyed by the ongoing Israeli airstrikes for months due to the diminishing military operations there, mentioning that the US is discussing this possibility with the UN but recognizes that many homes have been destroyed or rendered uninhabitable. One idea is to train around 6,000 members of the Palestinian Authority Security Forces (PASF), but that would require about 8 to 10 months.

According to the magazine, sources familiar with McGurk’s comments revealed that the US is less aware of Israel's intentions, even though it has gathered intelligence on Israel's war behavior despite him covering many aspects publicly acknowledged by the administration, including emphasizing the humanitarian crisis and the need to find ways for Palestinians to return to their homes in northern Gaza,

Politico lastly mentions that the US National Security Council did not respond to its request for comment.


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