KABUL — Afghans on Tuesday woke to the start of
another uncertain era after the last American forces left overnight, cementing
victory for the Taliban after two decades of war.
اضافة اعلان
Many are afraid that the group will once again impose their
harsh interpretation of Islamic law, brutally punishing their opponents and
locking away Afghan women as they did during their 1996–2001 regime.
And while many Afghans — especially in rural areas — are
also relieved that the war has ended, the country still faces huge economic,
political and security challenges.
How will the Taliban govern this time?
The Taliban have made several promises, but offered few
policy details.
Their spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid has said they will be
softer than before, offering general amnesty to their opponents, and allowing
women to work in some sectors as well as get an education — albeit in
segregated classes. They have also said the media can operate as usual.
They have expressed a desire to be a recognized member of
the international community, and assured that Afghanistan will not be used by
militant groups as a base to attack other nations — a promise at the core of
the US troop withdrawal deal.
The Taliban have also said they are aiming to form an
"inclusive" government, and talks to set it up are under way. So far,
they have held talks with bitter former opponents such as ex-president Hamid
Karzai and elders from the ethnic Tajik-dominated Panjshir valley.
They have sent representatives to the ethnic Hazara
community, who are mainly Shiites. During their first stint in power, the group
— hardline Sunnis — massacred Hazaras.
Are Afghans buying it?
Despite their efforts to reassure Afghans, the Taliban have
been unable to get a buy-in from large sections of the fearful public so far.
Tens of thousands of Afghans risked terror threats and
stampedes to try and escape
Taliban rule on an evacuation flight. And many of
those who remain are fearful of going outside — especially women.
"(The) Taliban will make every effort to deny women
their fundamental human rights. The world should not look away ... or be
delusional about this," tweeted Shaharzad Akbar of the Afghan Independent
Human Rights Commission.
The group has announced a general amnesty, but there is
still terror among those who could not leave — journalists, rights activists,
and people who worked for the US-backed government and foreign militaries.
What about the international community?
The Taliban have developed working contacts with a number of
regional countries such as Pakistan, Iran, Russia and China, but there has been
no sign of international recognition yet.
The United States has led a number of Western nations in
warning that the Taliban must earn legitimacy and respect human rights —
especially those of women — and allow safe passage to Afghans who want to leave
the country.
Major Western and international donors, including the
International Monetary Fund, have suspended aid to the impoverished nation, and
access to Afghanistan's sovereign reserves held in the United States has been
frozen.
The UN has warned of a humanitarian catastrophe, but
restoring foreign aid flows — more than 40 percent of Afghan GDP in 2020 —
remains dependent on the Taliban regime getting recognized.
What does that mean for the economy?
"Afghanistan's economy is shaped by fragility and aid
dependence," the World Bank has said.
With foreign assistance largely suspended and little sign of
any immediate economic boost, the Taliban face a serious
challenge ensuring
government salaries are paid, communications such as mobile services and the
internet remain available, and infrastructure such as water and power supply
remain operational.
Food supplies are also dwindling in the drought-hit country.
Analysts say that growing economic pressure could seed
further discontent among Afghans, who saw greater opportunity and living
standards — at least in some cities — over the last 20 years.
Is there a risk of civil war?
The Taliban are arguably in a stronger position than they
were when the group first took over Afghanistan in 1996. Some of their biggest
foes from the past have fled or been captured, including warlords Abdul Rashid
Dostum and Ismail Khan.
Only one major pocket of armed resistance remains, in the
Panjshir valley. But there have been indications there that a settlement is
possible.
On the other side of the spectrum, the bitter rivalry between
the Taliban and
Daesh also poses a threat. Daesh’s local chapter has been
highly critical of the Taliban's deal with Washington that led to the
withdrawal.
In addition, there are local militias across Afghanistan who
may turn against the Taliban if the group fails to keep them in line through
deals or force.
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