WASHINGTON, DC — The Biden administration has been
negotiating quietly with Iran to limit the country’s nuclear program and free
imprisoned Americans, according to officials from three countries, in part of a
larger US effort to ease tensions and reduce the risk of a military
confrontation with the Islamic Republic.
اضافة اعلان
The US goal is to reach an informal, unwritten agreement,
which some Iranian officials are calling a “political cease-fire”.
It would aim to prevent a further escalation in a
long-hostile relationship that has grown even more fraught as Iran builds up a
stockpile of highly enriched uranium close to bomb-grade purity, supplies
Russia with drones for use in Ukraine, and brutally cracks down on domestic
political protests.
The broad outlines of the talks were confirmed by three
senior Israeli officials, an Iranian official, and a US official. US officials
would not discuss efforts to win the release of prisoners in detail, beyond
calling that an urgent US priority.
The indirect talks, some occurring this spring in the Gulf
Arab state of Oman, reflect a resumption of diplomacy between the US and Iran
after the collapse of more than a year of negotiations to restore the 2015
nuclear deal. That agreement sharply limited Iran’s activities in exchange for
sanctions relief.
Iran accelerated its nuclear program months after former
President Donald Trump withdrew from the deal and imposed a slew of new
sanctions on the country in 2018.
Iran would agree under a new pact — which two Israeli
officials called “imminent” — not to enrich uranium beyond its current
production level of 60 percent purity. That is close to but short of the 90
percent purity needed to fashion a nuclear weapon, a level that the US has
warned would force a severe response.
Iran would also halt lethal attacks on US contractors in
Syria and Iraq by its proxies in the region, expand its cooperation with
international nuclear inspectors, and refrain from selling ballistic missiles
to Russia, Iranian officials said.
In return, Iran would expect the US to avoid tightening
sanctions already choking its economy; to not seize oil-bearing foreign
tankers, as it most recently did in April; and to not seek new punitive
resolutions at the UN or the International Atomic Energy Agency against Iran
for its nuclear activity.
“None of this is aimed at reaching a groundbreaking
agreement,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran director for the International Crisis
Group, a conflict prevention organization. Instead, he said, the goal is to
“put a lid on any activity that basically crosses a red line or puts either
party in a position to retaliate in a way that destabilizes the status quo.”
“The objective is to stabilize the tensions, to create time
and space to discuss the future diplomacy and the nuclear deal,” Vaez said.
Iran also expects the US to unfreeze billions of dollars in
Iranian assets, whose use would be limited to humanitarian purposes, in
exchange for the release of three Iranian American prisoners whom the US calls
wrongfully detained. US officials have not confirmed such a linkage between the
prisoners and the money, nor any connection between prisoners and nuclear
matters.
In what could be a sign of a developing agreement, the US
issued a waiver last week allowing Iraq to pay $2.76 billion in energy debts to
Iran. The money would be restricted to use by US-approved third-party vendors
for food and medicine for Iranian citizens, according to the State Department.
That could allay concerns that the Biden administration is
placing billions into the hands of a ruthless authoritarian regime that is
killing protesters, supporting Russia’s Ukraine war effort, and funding Hamas
and Hezbollah. Republicans hammered the Obama administration for releasing
billions in frozen Iranian cash.
Iranian officials are also trying to claim an estimated $7
billion worth of oil purchase payments held in South Korea that they have
linked to the release of US prisoners. That money, too, would be restricted for
humanitarian use, and held in a Qatari bank, according to an Iranian official
and several other people familiar with the negotiations.
The renewed US focus on Iran’s nuclear program comes amid
growing concern within the Biden administration that Iran could precipitate a
crisis by further increasing its uranium enrichment.
“The US seems to be making clear to Iran that if you go to
90 percent, you’re going to pay a hell of a price,” said Dennis Ross, who
helped craft Middle East policy for several US presidents. Ross spoke from
Israel, where he had been meeting with security officials familiar with the
recent talks.
At the same time, Ross said, the Biden administration has no
appetite for a new crisis. “They want the priority and focus to remain on
Ukraine and Russia,” he said. “Having a war in the Mideast, where you know how
it starts but you don’t know how it ends, that’s the last thing they want.”
Speaking at a news briefing Wednesday, the State Department
spokesperson, Matt Miller, said that “rumors about a nuclear deal — interim or
otherwise — are false or misleading.”
“Our No. 1 policy is ensuring that Iran never obtains a
nuclear weapon, so of course we’ve been watching Iran’s nuclear enrichment
activities,” Miller added. “We believe diplomacy is the best path to help
achieve that, but we are preparing for all possible options and contingencies.”
The US denial of a pending “nuclear deal” could hinge on
semantics, however, if the outcome amounts to the informal understanding
described by multiple officials. Such an understanding would also avoid the
need for approval from a US Congress deeply hostile to Iran.
In an unexpected rhetorical shift, Iran’s supreme leader,
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Wednesday that he could endorse an agreement with
the West if Iran’s nuclear infrastructure was kept intact, according to state
media reports. Khamenei also said that Iran should maintain at least some
cooperation with international nuclear inspectors.
Israel has warned that Iran could suffer dire consequences
from producing bomb-worthy uranium. “If Iran enriches to the 90 percent
weaponized level, it would be a great error and the price would be heavy,”
Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, said in May.
Even if Iran were to use its high-speed centrifuges to
purify uranium to a level suitable for making a nuclear weapon, it would still
take time to construct such a bomb. In March, the chair of the US Joint Chiefs
of Staff, Gen. Mark A. Milley, told a House subcommittee that process could
take “several months.”
“The US military has developed multiple options for our
national leadership to consider, if or when Iran decides to develop a nuclear
weapon,” Milley added.
A senior Israeli defense official said that Israel estimates
it would take Iran much longer — at least one year and perhaps more than two
years — to fashion a bomb and said Milley’s comments reflect a US effort to
convey the urgency of striking a new agreement with Iran as soon as possible.
Iran has long insisted its nuclear program is for peaceful
purposes despite evidence that it has researched nuclear military capabilities.
In a statement to The New York Times, Iran’s mission to the
UN declined to address details of the talks but said that “it is important to
create a new atmosphere and move forward from the current situation.”
The renewed talks have troubled some Israeli officials, who
worry that the implementation of new understandings could reduce Western
economic pressure on Iran and even lead to a broader nuclear agreement that,
Israel fears, could throw a lifeline to Iran’s economy without sufficiently
derailing its nuclear activities.
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