BRASÍLIA —
Brazil’s new right-leaning
Congress risks making life difficult for leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
should he win a third presidential term in elections this month, analysts say.
اضافة اعلان
For far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, however, it
is a boon — whether he wins or loses.
Bolsonaro, 67, exceeded polling predictions by coming
a closer-than-expected second to Lula, 76, in a first election round on October
2.
The two men will face off in a deeply polarized
second round on October 30.
Though still trailing frontrunner Lula, Bolsonaro
emerged strong from the first round in more ways than one: his
Liberal Party (PL) did well in legislative elections held on the same day, and will be the
biggest single party in Congress when its new term starts in February.
In the lower house, or Chamber of Deputies, the PL
will have the largest representation of any party since 1998, with 99 out of
the 513 seats — a 23 seat bump.
With other allied parties, a right-wing Bolsonaro
bloc would have almost 190 lawmakers, or more than a third, in the deeply
fragmented house where more than 20 parties are represented from all sides of
the political spectrum.
In the 81-seat Senate, the PL boosted its presence
by six seats to 13, and all of Brazil’s right-wing parties together now control
53 percent of the higher chamber.
“It is a conservative, liberal, center-right
Congress,” crowed Chamber of Deputies president, Arthur Lira, who has thrown
his support behind Bolsonaro for the second round.
‘Quite hostile’
What does this mean in case
of a Lula victory?
“Congress and the Senate will be quite hostile to
Lula because the right grew — it is not just the right, it is the far right,
the more radical right that grew,”
Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) analyst
Oliver Stuenkel told AFP.
The new Congress, he said, “will try to complicate
Lula’s life,” likely blocking his reform agenda that includes increasing taxes
on the rich and new labor laws more favorable to workers.
And in a further distraction, impeachment attempts
are likely to start already “on day one,” said Stuenkel.
Lula served two terms from 2003 to 2010, leaving as
the most popular president in Brazilian history with approval ratings nearing
90 percent.
But this time, getting allies to pass his program
will be “more difficult,” said Sergio Praca, a political scientist also at FGV.
The only hope for Lula would be, as he did last
time, to ally leftist parties in Congress — about 120 lawmakers in all — with
the center, which holds about 240.
The “Centrao,” which groups a handful of
conservative but pragmatic parties, has dominated Brazilian politics for
decades, and any president hoping to get things done has had to forge alliances
with it.
But its cooperation is not free: these centrist
parties exchange their support for influential political posts or handouts for
their electoral fiefdoms.
And they can withdraw it at the drop of a hat, as
Lula’s successor Dilma Rousseff learned when she was impeached in 2016 after
being abandoned by her centrist allies.
Pressure on the judiciary
In its current form, the
Congress is primed for pushing through a conservative agenda if
Bolsonaro is
reelected to a second term.
Bolsonaro has successfully sold himself as the
representative of Brazil’s “Bibles, bullets and beef” electoral base —
Evangelical Christians, security hardliners and the powerful agribusiness
sector.
With a second term, he would also be in a position
to appoint two judges to Brazil’s Supreme Court in 2023, shifting the balance
of power in an institution that could be the final arbiter in several criminal
pursuits against him.
Bolsonaro could also use his increased influence on
the Senate to push for the removal of unfriendly judges.
“The major risk to democracy in a second Bolsonaro
term would be his increased capacity to put pressure on the judiciary,” said Stuenkel.
But even if he loses the October 30 runoff,
Bolsonaro will likely benefit from the new Congress.
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