STOCKHOLM — Finland and Sweden are expected to announce
this week whether to apply to join
NATO following Russia’s Ukraine invasion, in
what would be a stunning reversal of decades-long non-alignment policies.
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The Nordic
nations have been rattled by Moscow’s war against its pro-Western neighbor,
which has bolstered domestic support for joining the military alliance — and
the security that membership would provide.
“It is 100
percent certain that
Finland will apply, and quite likely that it will be a
member by the end of the year”, researcher Charly Salonius-Pasternak of the
Finnish Institute of International Affairs told AFP, with a majority in
parliament backing membership.
Russia’s
February 24 invasion of
Ukraine has also led to a swift turnaround in Finnish
and Swedish public opinion in favor of NATO membership, which until recently
had little backing.
A poll published
Monday by Finnish public broadcaster Yle showed that a record 76 percent of
Finns now support joining the alliance, up from the steady 20 to 30 percent
registered in recent years.
Public opinion
has also surged in
Sweden, albeit to lower levels, with around half of Swedes
now in favor.
After weeks of
intense political meetings at home and abroad, all signs now point to the two
countries announcing a joint bid before the end of the week.
Sweden’s ruling
Social Democratic Party said Monday it would announce its position on the NATO
issue on May 15. A favorable stance would provide a clear parliamentary
majority for an application.
Elisabeth Braw,
an expert on Nordic countries’ defense at the American Enterprise Institute,
told AFP that even though Stockholm appears more hesitant than Helsinki, she
believes the two countries “will do the application at the same time”.
Traditionally
accustomed to lengthy consensus-building debates on major issues, Sweden has
been caught off-guard by Finland’s swift turnaround.
“The Social
Democrats in Sweden have always said: ‘We’ll think about this when Finland joins’
... because they thought Finland would never join”, Braw said.
Any NATO
enlargement is bound to spark anger from Moscow, which has historically pushed
back at any eastward expansion of the alliance and has strongly condemned any
notions of Ukraine joining.
But Moscow’s
mounting warnings about the “political and military” consequences appear only
to have strengthened Finland’s and Sweden’s resolve.
If Finland and
Sweden do opt to join NATO, it will be in direct response to Moscow’s military
aggression in Ukraine.
And the alliance
would move in right next door. Finnish membership would double NATO’s land
border with Russia to around 2,600km.
And if they do
join, the timing could be advantageous for Sweden and Finland.
“From a risk
perspective, the timing is perfect”, Braw said. “Russia is so busy elsewhere,
it would be very hard for Russia to respond militarily.”
In Finland,
President Sauli Niinisto is expected to announce his “personal” opinion on the
NATO question on Thursday, while Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democratic
Party is due to announce its decision by Saturday at the latest.
According to
Finnish daily Iltalehti, a committee made up of the president, prime minister
and four other cabinet ministers is to meet Sunday to make the country’s final
decision.
Asked by AFP,
the Finnish government refused to comment on the report, saying the committee’s
meeting dates were confidential information.
On Sweden’s
strategically-located
Baltic Sea island of Gotland, Home Guard troops were last
week called in for a special month-long training exercise, coinciding with
annual military exercises taking place across Finland and Sweden next week.
With a
professional army of 12,000, another 21,000 conscripts per year and a wartime
force of 280,000 troops, Finland’s military might is impressive for a country
of just 5.5 million people.
And while the
post-Cold War period was marked by deep cuts in defense spending, Sweden also has a
modern army that already meets NATO standards, as well as a cutting-edge arms
industry.
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