PARIS —
Three failed tilts at top office would be enough to end the careers of many
politicians. But not, it seems,
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who is
already preparing for legislative elections and possibly even another crack at
the presidency in five years.
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Rather than
showing any indication of bowing out of politics after conceding defeat in
Sunday’s election to
President Emmanuel Macron, the National Rally (RN) chief
immediately staked her claim to be leader of the future opposition.
With more than
41 percent of the vote, “the ideas we represent have reached new heights,” Le
Pen told a crowd of supporters at an election-night party, vowing a “great
battle for the legislative elections” in June.
But maintaining
momentum will be an uphill struggle for RN, which has bled members and
officials for want of electoral breakthroughs and lacks dense local networks.
Based around a
personal brand rather than a party, “presidential elections are traditionally
favorable for the RN,” said Sylvain Crepon, a political scientist specializing
in the far right at the University of Tours.
“After all, the
Le Pen brand embodies nationalism in France the best,” he said, adding this was
thanks both to Marine and her father Jean-Marie, who founded the party as the
National Front (FN).
But the far more
localized parliamentary polls are a tougher nut to crack.
“When you have
no significant allies to carry the (parliamentary) run-offs, it’s very
complicated,” Crepon said.
With just six
MPs in the lower chamber at present, the surge from this year’s unprecedented
presidential result might carry the RN into the low double digits, he
suggested.
But he said it
is “totally impossible for them to form a majority in the National Assembly.”
Voters from the
traditional right Republicans and hard left, who backed Le Pen mainly to try
and eliminate Macron, will likely return to their political homes for the
legislative vote.
‘Leader of the opposition’
RN party spokesman Sebastien Chenu told RTL radio Monday that “the
French have made (Le Pen) the leader of the opposition”.
The party was
already “looking to the legislative elections,” he said, targeting “an RN group
in the National Assembly that will be strong enough to oppose Emmanuel Macron’s
policies.”
“We will be the
ones to protect the French people during the five years ahead,” agreed party
president Jordan Bardella, the RN’s 26-year-old rising star and one of its few
figures other than Le Pen with nationwide recognition.
That position
will be most fiercely contested by hard-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, who has
called on France’s fragmented political left to back him in June and deny
Macron a majority.
And the RN must
also fend off
Eric Zemmour’s attempts to claim the nationalist limelight.
The former
journalist and TV pundit scored eight percent in the presidential election’s
first round with an even more xenophobic message than Le Pen — as well as
winning over her niece Marion Marechal and a string of other prominent RN names
to his cause.
Between Marine
and her father, “it’s the eighth time the name Le Pen has been met with defeat”
in a presidential vote, Zemmour said after Sunday’s result, adding that a
coalition between his outfit Reconquest and the RN in June is “not an option,
it’s a necessity, it’s a duty”.
“That’s a fine
way to propose marriage!” Bardella retorted Monday.
Five years on
Looking still further ahead, the RN will likely continue to struggle at
regional, departmental and municipal elections, but can expect good scores at
European polls under proportional representation, Crepon said.
Above all, some
in the party already have their eye on the next presidential vote five years
away.
“If every five
years we gain 10 percentage points, we’ll make it next time,” RN chief Bardella
told reporters Monday.
But it is likely
too soon for such predictions, as the field will be completely open after
Macron serves out his maximum two terms.
What is almost
certain is that Le Pen will contest the election for the RN — despite
suggesting during this year’s campaign that she would step back if defeated.
“Marine Le Pen
has not prepared a successor, and since there’s no internal democracy, neither
has a competing school of thought been able to coalesce inside the party,”
Crepon said.
In the long
term, she may hope to pass the reins to Marechal, if she can be persuaded back
across party lines.
For now, “those
who imagine that Marine Le Pen will retire to raise cats are mistaken,”
spokesman Chenu said, referring to her penchant for breeding the animals.
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