PARIS — Global decarbonization scenarios
envisioned by
oil and gas majors are incompatible with the Paris climate deal
temperature goals aimed at averting devastating heating, according to research
published Tuesday.
اضافة اعلان
The landmark 2015 accord saw nations commit to limit
planetary heating to “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to work
towards a safer 1.5°C warming cap.
Writing in the journal Nature Communications, an
international team of experts analyzed six emissions scenarios from three
European energy giants — Equinor, BP, and Shell — as well as those produced by
the International Energy Agency.
They then compared the analyzed pathways to
scenarios outlined in a special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change on 1.5°C of warming.
The team used these to evaluate peak and
end-of-century temperatures under each scenario, noting that average global
temperatures may decline by 2100 in some scenarios after peaking.
They also assessed the underlying energy system
changes that drive emissions and could lead to a given scenario meeting — or
failing to meet — the Paris temperature goals.
“Most of the scenarios we evaluated would be
classified as inconsistent with the Paris Agreement as they fail to limit
warming to ‘well below 2°C’, let alone 1.5°C, and would exceed the 1.5°C
warming limit by a significant margin,” said Robert Brecha of the Climate
Analytics think tank and co-lead author of the study.
“Energy system transformation is critical to
reaching the Paris Agreement warming limit, and decision makers need sound and
transparent scientific assessments. This paper adds to that transparency.”
The analysis
found that Shell’s Sky scenario would lead to warming of 1.81°C by 2069 — a far
cry from 1.5°C.
A Shell
spokeswoman told AFP that the Sky pathway was just one of several envisaged by
the company.
The team responsible for modelling scenarios “makes
assessments based on plausible assumptions and quantifications, which are not
intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes, let alone our
energy transition plan”, she added.
Equinor’s Rebalance scenario would see warming peak
at 1.73°C above pre-industrial levels by 2060, according to the study.
BP’s Rapid scenario would see peak warming of 1.73°C
by 2058, while its Net Zero scenario would see median warming peak at 1.65°C,
the analysis found.
Equinor declined to comment, while BP did not
respond to a comment request.
Only the IEA’s Net Zero 2050 pathway is fully
aligned with the Paris agreement’s 1.5°C goal, the authors concluded.
“Fossil fuel companies claim that we can continue to
burn oil and gas while keeping to the 1.5°C warming limit, and they cite their
own scenarios as justification,” said Bill Hare, CEO and Senior Scientist at
Climate Analytics.
“But our research shows that their pathways would
bust the Paris Agreement. Even temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C warming would
lead to catastrophic impacts and severely weaken our ability to adapt to
climate change.”
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