The Fall of the Assad Regime and Its Impact on the Jordanian Economy

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria could have several potential impacts on the Jordanian economy, most notably due to the closure of border crossings between the two countries. اضافة اعلان

These crossings are not only a point of bilateral trade, but also part of regional trade corridors linking the Arabian Gulf to Turkey and Europe through Jordan.

If the closure is prolonged, it could disrupt these trade routes, affecting the flow of goods. This would have direct and significant economic effects on Jordan, particularly on its trade with Syria and the broader region. 

Some of the key aspects of these effects include a decline in trade volume and a drop in exports and imports, which reached 100 million USD in 2023.

Since Syria is a key transit route for Jordanian trade to European and Turkish markets, the closure of these crossings would lead to a reduction or complete halt of this trade.

Another negative impact would be the increase in shipping costs, which would naturally affect land transport companies. The closure of the crossings would disrupt the transportation sector as exporting or importing companies seek alternative routes via sea or via other countries.

Additionally, there would be a decline in agricultural produce, as farmers in Jordan rely on Syrian crossings to export agricultural produce to Lebanon and east Europe.

The closure of these crossings would hinder the export of these products, causing losses for farmers and impacting the agriculture sector as a whole.

In terms of the Jordanian Government, the decline in trade would negatively affect government revenues, as the government would lose a portion of the income generated from customs duties and taxes on goods passing through the Syrian border.

The only potential positive economic aspect of the fall of Assad could be the return of some refugees to their homeland, which may reduce the economic burden on Jordan.

Overall, the economic impact will largely depend on the stability resulting from any new government in Syria, as well as the effective management of the economy by the new administration.