The pandemic abruptly slowed the global march of coal. But
demand for the world’s dirtiest fuel is forecast to soar this year, gravely
undermining the chances of staving off the worst effects of global warming.
اضافة اعلان
Burning coal is the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions,
and, after a pandemic-year retreat, demand for coal is set to rise by 4.5% this
year, mainly to meet soaring electricity demand, according to data published
Tuesday by the
International Energy Agency, or IEA, just two days before a
White House-hosted virtual summit aimed at rallying global climate action.
“This is a dire warning that the economic recovery from the
COVID crisis is currently anything but sustainable for our climate,” agency
head Fatih Birol said in a statement.
Coal is at the crux of critical political decisions that
government leaders need to make this year if they are to transition to a green
economy. Scientists say greenhouse gas emissions need to be halved by 2030 in
order for the world to have a fighting chance at limiting dangerous levels of
warming.
In short, this is a historic juncture for coal.
For 150 years, more and more of its sooty deposits have been
extracted from under the ground, first to power the economies of Europe and
North America, then Asia and Africa. Today, coal is still the largest source of
electricity, although its share is steadily shrinking as other sources of power
come online, from nuclear to wind.
Global spending on coal projects dropped to its lowest level in
a decade in 2019. And, over the past 20 years, more coal-fired power plants
have been retired or shelved than commissioned. The big holdouts are China,
India and parts of Southeast Asia, but, even there, coal’s once-swift growth is
nowhere as swift as it was just a few years ago, according to a recent
analysis.
In some countries where new coal-fired power plants were only
recently being built by the gigawatts, plans for new ones have been shelved, as
in South Africa, or reconsidered, as in Bangladesh, or facing funding troubles,
as in Vietnam. In some countries, including India, existing coal plants are
running way below capacity and losing money. In others, including the United
States, they are being decommissioned faster than ever.
Nonetheless, demand is still strong. “Coal is not dead,” said
Melissa Lott, research director for the Center on Global Energy Policy at
Columbia University. “We have made a lot of progress, but we have not made that
curve.”
‘Growing Opposition Against Coal’
Since the start of the industrial era, coal has been the main
fuel to light up homes, power factories and, in some places, to cook and heat
rooms, too. For more than a century, Europe and the United States consumed most
of the world’s coal. Today, China and India account for two-thirds of coal
consumption.
Other energy sources have joined the mix as electricity demand
has soared: nuclear, wind and, most recently, hydrogen. Coal made room for new
entrants but refused to retreat.
Today, several forces are rising against coal. People are
clamoring against deadly levels of air pollution, caused by its combustion.
Wind and solar energy, once far costlier than coal, are becoming competitive,
while some countries are facing a glut of coal-fired plants already built.
So, even in countries where coal use is growing, the pace of
growth is slowing.
In South Africa, after years of lawsuits, plans to build a
coal-fired power station in Limpopo Province were canceled in November.
In at least three countries, Chinese-funded projects are in
trouble or dead. In Kenya, a proposed coal plant has languished for years
because of litigation. In Egypt, a planned coal plant is indefinitely
postponed. In Bangladesh, Chinese-backed projects are among 15 planned coal
plants that the government in Dhaka is reviewing, with an eye to canceling them
altogether.
Pakistan, saddled by debts, announced a vague moratorium on new
coal projects. Vietnam, which is still expanding its coal fleet, scaled back
plans for new plants. The Philippines, under pressure from citizens groups, hit
the pause button on new projects.
“Broadly speaking, there’s growing opposition against coal and a
lot more scrutiny right now,” said Daine Loh, a Southeast Asia power sector
energy specialist at Fitch Solutions, an industry analysis firm. “It’s a trend
— moving away from coal. It’s very gradual.”
Money is part of the problem. Development banks are shying away
from coal. Japan and Korea, two major financiers of coal, have tightened
restrictions on new coal projects. Japan is still building coal plants at home,
rare among industrialized countries, although Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga
said in October that his country would aspire to draw down its emissions to
net-zero by 2050.
There are some big exceptions. Indonesia and Australia continue
to mine their abundant coal deposits. Perhaps most oddly, Britain, which is
hosting the next international climate talks, is opening a new coal mine.
And then there are the world’s biggest coal consumers, China and
India.
China’s economy rebounded in 2020. Government stimulus measures
encouraged the production of steel, cement and other industrial products that
eat up energy. Coal demand rose. The capacity of China’s fleet of coal-fired
power plants grew by a whopping 38 gigawatts in 2020, making up the vast
majority of new coal projects worldwide and offsetting nearly the same amount
of coal capacity that was retired worldwide. (One gigawatt is enough to power a
medium-sized city.)
Coal’s future in China is at the center of a robust debate in
the country, with prominent policy advisers pressing for a near-moratorium on
new coal plants and state-owned companies insisting that China needs to burn
more coal for years to come.
India’s coal fleet is growing as well, bankrolled by state-owned
lenders. There is not much of a signal from the government that it wants to
reduce its reliance on coal, even as it seeks to expand solar energy. The
government in New Delhi is allowing some of its oldest, most-polluting coal
plants to remain open, and it is seeking private investors to mine coal. If
India’s economy recovers this year, its coal demand is set to rise by 9%,
according to the IEA.
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