If you are not feeling a sense of dread about the midterm
elections, you have not been paying attention.
We can talk about the conventional stakes of these elections —
their implications for economic policy, major social programs, environmental
policy, civil liberties, and reproductive rights. And it is not wrong to have
these discussions: Life will go on whatever happens on the political scene, and
government policies will continue to have a big impact on people’s lives.
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But I, at least, always feel at least a bit guilty when writing
about inflation or the fate of Medicare. Yes, these are my specialties.
Focusing on them, however, feels a bit like denial, or at least evasion, when
the fundamental stakes right now are so existential.
Ten or 20 years ago, those of us who warned that the Republican
Party was becoming increasingly extremist and anti-democracy were often
dismissed as alarmists. But the alarmists have been vindicated every step of
the way, from the selling of the Iraq War on false pretenses to the January 6
insurrection.
Indeed, these days is is almost conventional wisdom that the GOP
will, if it can, turn America into something like Viktor Orban’s Hungary: a
democracy on paper but an ethno-nationalist, authoritarian one-party state in
practice. After all, US conservatives have made no secret about viewing Hungary
as a role model; they have feted Orban and featured him at their conferences.
At this point, however, I believe that even this conventional
wisdom is wrong. If America descends into one-party rule, it will be much
worse, much uglier, than what we see in today’s Hungary.
Before I get there, a word about the role of conventional policy
issues in these elections.
If Democrats lose one or both houses of Congress, there will be
a loud chorus of recriminations, much of it asserting that they should have
focused on kitchen table issues and not talked at all about threats to
democracy.
I do not claim any expertise here, but I would note that an
incumbent president’s party almost always loses seats in the midterms. The only
exception to that rule this century was in 2002, when George W. Bush was able
to deflect attention from a jobless recovery by posing as America’s defender
against terrorism. That record suggests, if anything, that Democrats should
have talked even more about issues beyond economics.
I would also say that pretending that this was an ordinary
election season, where only economic policy was at stake, would have been
fundamentally dishonest.
Finally, even voters who are more worried about paychecks and
living costs than about democracy should nonetheless be very concerned about
the GOP’s rejection of democratic norms.
Even if Republicans win big in the midterms, it will not be the end for democracy, although it will be a big blow. And nothing in politics, not even a full descent into authoritarianism, is permanent.
For one thing, Republicans have been open about their plan to
use the threat of economic chaos to extract concessions they could not win
through the normal legislative process.
Also, while I understand the instinct of voters to choose a
different driver if they do not like where the economy is going, they should
understand that this time, voting Republican does not just mean giving someone
else a chance at the wheel; it may be a big step toward handing the GOP
permanent control, with no chance for voters to revisit that decision if they
don’t like the results.
Which brings me to the question of what a one-party America
would look like.
As I said, it’s now almost conventional wisdom that Republicans
are trying to turn us into Hungary. Indeed, Hungary provides a case study in
how democracies can die in the 21st century.
But what strikes me, reading about Orban’s rule, is that while
his regime is deeply repressive, the repression is relatively subtle. It is, as
one perceptive article put it, “soft fascism,” which makes dissidents powerless
via its control of the economy and the news media without beating them up or
putting them in jail.
Do you think a MAGA regime, with or without Donald Trump, would
be equally subtle? Listen to the speeches at any Trump rally. They are full of
vindictiveness, of promises to imprison and punish anyone — including
technocrats like Anthony Fauci — the movement dislikes.
And much of the American right is sympathetic to, or at least
unwilling to condemn, violence against its opponents. The Republican reaction
to the attack on Paul Pelosi by a MAGA-spouting intruder was telling: Many in
the party did not even pretend to be horrified. Instead, they peddled ugly
conspiracy theories. And the rest of the party didn’t ostracize or penalize the
purveyors of vile falsehoods.
In short, if MAGA wins, we will probably find ourselves wishing
its rule was as tolerant, relatively benign, and relatively nonviolent as
Orban’s.
Now this catastrophe does not have to happen. Even if
Republicans win big in the midterms, it will not be the end for democracy,
although it will be a big blow. And nothing in politics, not even a full
descent into authoritarianism, is permanent.
On the other hand, even if we get a reprieve this week, the fact
remains that democracy is in deep danger from the authoritarian right. America
as we know it is not yet lost, but it’s on the edge.
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