After years without a terrorist attack, Turkey witnessed one last week,
targeting a civilian area in a shopping street in Taksim Square, which left six
dead and more than 80 people injured.
اضافة اعلان
Turkey’s military campaign against the Kurds in Iraq
and Syria would suggest that it was a Kurdish response. However, the dynamics
of the attack seem to belie the well-known style of PKK operations, which
typically avoid targeting civilians. The Turkish government immediately blamed
the Kurdish rebels, who denied, declaring that they do not target civilians.
The attack comes at a critical time in the political
cycle as President Tayyip Recep Erdogan is preparing himself, his party, and
his allies for the upcoming presidential elections. The attack is likely to
shift voters’ priorities, from economic demands to security assurances and
reinforce the nationalist narrative as a dominant topic in the election
campaign.
Meanwhile, a Syrian woman has been arrested and
accused of carrying out the attack, which will restart the debate around Syrian
refugees in Turkey and could make Erdogan reverse his previous position and
start returning Syrian refugees to Syria.
The race to the presidential election has started in
Turkey, and while it is difficult for Erdogan to eliminate all his political
antagonists, there is no single figure that has the support of all the
opposition to successfully run against him. This may be an advantage for him in
the campaign, but economic progress, and quality of life for Turks will
continue to be a major challenge for the next government.
The race to the presidential election has started in Turkey, and while it is difficult for Erdogan to eliminate all his political antagonists, there is no single figure that has the support of all the opposition and run against him.
There is also the potential for more terrorist
attacks, which could trigger socio-political fragmentation and instability that
could go beyond simple politics. Failure to meet basic needs will likely give
rise to social and economic frustration that could lead to protests and
aggressive demonstrations that degenerate into open violence. This will be
fertile ground for internal terrorists targeting civilians and symbols of the
state.
It is important to consider the situation in Turkey
from a wider international and regional perspective. During the Russia-Ukraine
war, Turkey has become a critical player at various levels: mediation,
security, its presence within NATO and relations with both Israel and the US.
So, from a strategic point of view Turkey’s stability is important for
everyone. Turkey’s increasing importance on the world stage will play well for
Erdogan, who is bound to expand his influence and strategic benefits from the
role he currently plays on the regional and international scene.
Turkey’s role is clearly giving Erdogan a strategic
advantage in the race to presidential election. Over the years he has navigated
difficult situations that put him under a lot of pressure, and has come through
it successfully. As his role in the region is changing and regional conflicts
are subsiding, his role within NATO and the alliance with the US will be an
advantage. However, he must manage the internal affairs, both on the security
front, where there is fear of renewed terrorist attacks, and, critically,
ensuring effective policies and programs that improve the economic situation of
the people.
Amer Al-Sabaileh is a Jordanian university professor and
geopolitical expert. He is a leading columnist in national, regional, and
international media, offers consultancies to think tanks and speaks at
international conferences on Middle East politics and developments.
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