The quick decisions and sanctions that the US and Western countries have applied
to Russia demonstrate that Ukraine is no longer the prism through which
relations with Russia will be viewed. Even when the war in Ukraine is over and
even if Russia withdraws, the sanctions imposed suggest that we are heading to
a new world order and a change in the balance of power on the international
political scene.
اضافة اعلان
Russia, a
permanent member of the UN Security Council with veto power and a member of the
G7, has been subject to unprecedented sanctions that go beyond the economic,
finance and travel sectors to the heart of Russian culture and sport in a way
that lays the foundation for potential “Russia-phobia”.
It is interesting
to see how fast the West has reacted to Russia’s move into Ukraine, leaving no
room for negotiations and tightening the screws on the Russian president. It is
a true test of globalization and the intertwining of economies making countries
increasingly reliant on each other. It is because of this globalization that
sanctions such as this can have a serious impact on a country like Russia and
attempt to make it toe the line.
The speed and
severity of the measures will impact international politics, particularly, and
could lead to a new cold war atmosphere that will dominate the global political
scene for years to come. Furthermore, this puts pressure on all countries to
take sides in the confrontation between the West and Russia.
While the western
bloc has reacted clearly, the position of others might not be that clear,
particularly those historically considered US allies, including Gulf countries
that can still influence the oil market and the OPEC+ strategies.
The position of
these countries will be interesting, given the change in relations after the
Trump administration, during which they were enjoying privileges and could
influence the former president’s vision and policy.
Also critical to
them is the Biden administration’s effort to restore the Iran nuclear deal,
ignoring the requests of these countries to add their concerns to the list of
things to be negotiated. Their key concerns are Iran’s ballistic arsenal and
its policies in the region.
It is also
important to note the positive relations that these countries developed with Russia
and Vladimir Putin during the Obama administration. So, choosing between the
West and Russia is not a simple decision, particularly not without concrete
political benefits.
The margin for
political maneuverability for these countries is quite narrow, and the impact
of US President Joe Biden’s climate agenda on the price of oil is not
particularly favorable, at least not in the medium to long term.
The current policy
of the West effectively targets Russia and Putin; isolating the president and
his entourage and draining their resources was definitely an important tactical
step. The speed with which this policy was adopted meant that Putin and others
targeted did not have time to prepare, so it will bite and have an impact on
the Russian social, economic and political scene. The pressure is real, and the
crisis in and around Russia could have repercussions that are difficult to
predict.
The confrontation
might also lead to a change in the international balance of power. A new world
order might also require a change in major concepts related to governance,
democracy and legitimacy, putting an end to corruption and autocracy.
The end of
powerful oligarchs in power and new standards of transparency and
accountability might also be outcomes of a new paradigm.
The writer is a Jordanian university
professor and geopolitical expert. He is a leading columnist in national,
regional, and international media, offers consultancies to think tanks and
speaks at international conferences on Middle East politics and developments.
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