South Asia specialists in China have been engaging their foreign
counterparts to advance Beijing’s position in an unlikely place: Afghanistan.
In March, China convened four private dialogues and one international
closed-door conference intended to pave the way for China’s activities in the
country.
اضافة اعلان
What does China
want in Afghanistan? And what concessions are China’s leaders willing to make
to accomplish their goals?
Many in China
see Afghanistan as a diplomatic opportunity following the failure of the US.
Washington’s inglorious retreat from the country last August has led Chinese
policy wonks to view Afghanistan as a chance to demonstrate a “superior model”
of stabilization and post-conflict reconstruction. Buoyed by this idea, China is
putting unprecedented effort into rallying regional support for a consensus, a
shared agenda, and an action plan for Afghanistan’s future.
But China’s
engagement in Afghanistan is driven by more than a desire to succeed where the
US could not. Within the broader South Asian region, China sees engagement in
Afghanistan as an opportunity to hedge against political turmoil in Pakistan
and Myanmar, challenges with financing in Nepal and Sri Lanka, and a new
diplomatic push by the US in Bangladesh.
Although China
has not officially recognized the Taliban-led government, Beijing’s actions
show that it is nonetheless ready to do business with Kabul. During the March
meetings, Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi was given equal status to
other participating foreign ministers from Russia, Pakistan, and elsewhere.
Meanwhile, South Asia specialists of the Chinese government have publicly
termed the Taliban the “de facto, functional government of the country” and the
“legitimate representative of the Afghan people”.
China does
appear to have conditions for full diplomatic recognition of the Taliban
government. On April 1, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that “Afghanistan
should not become a failed country” and that it deserves a “place among the
family of nations”. Yet he added: “With stronger responses on all parties’
concerns, diplomatic recognition of the Afghan government will be reached. We
hope the [Taliban government] can march toward this correct direction and make
concrete efforts.”
Reading between
the lines, Wang’s statement suggests that while China does not oppose
diplomatic recognition in principle, it will refrain from offering it until a
few conditions are met. These likely include national reconciliation, formation
of a more inclusive government, guarantees of employment and education for
women and children, and a commitment to combatting terrorism.
Still, China is
not waiting for the Taliban government to act before engaging. On March 31,
China along with Iran, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and
Uzbekistan agreed to a package of 72 development commitments under six broad
categories: humanitarian assistance, connectivity, economy and trade,
agricultural, energy, and capacity building.
Some of the
commitments are not new – such as the supply of humanitarian aid – while others
are positions rather than projects. But there are concrete proposals that would
increase Afghanistan’s economic potential if fully implemented. Iran’s vow to
complete and extend the Khaf-Herat railway would connect the country to Central
Asia via Mazar-e-Sharif, while Pakistan’s commitment to finishing the
Torkham-Jalalabad Road project would reestablish bus service between Pakistan
and Afghanistan.
There are also
commitments on energy initiatives, such as the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India
transnational gas pipeline and the Pul-e-Khumri-Surkhan transmission line.
What the list
lacks, however, are timelines. Not even the pledge to increase “delivery of
humanitarian assistance” indicates the quantity and quality of what will be
delivered. So, while it is impressive that China convinced Afghanistan’s
neighbors to commit to rebuilding Afghanistan after two decades of war, the
lack of deadlines raises questions about eventual implementation.
While many Chinese and foreign observers had expected China to move cautiously in Afghanistan, it now appears Beijing has concluded that the benefits of action outweigh the risks. If Afghanistan’s security situation remains stable, we should expect to see Chinese companies returning to the country soon.
None of that seems
to bother Beijing. As stated in the March 31 agreement, “China supports its
enterprises in investing and starting businesses in Afghanistan when the
security situation permits, and in resuming projects such as the Aynak copper
mine and the Amu Darya oilfield in due course.”
The statement
also made clear that “China supports its enterprises to help Afghanistan
improve its mobile network and explore and develop mineral resources”. This
essentially constitutes a green light for Chinese companies to return to
Afghanistan.
While many
Chinese and foreign observers had expected China to move cautiously in
Afghanistan, it now appears Beijing has concluded that the benefits of action
outweigh the risks. If Afghanistan’s security situation remains stable, we
should expect to see Chinese companies returning to the country soon.
Clearly, Beijing
is poised to lead global efforts to reengage in Afghanistan. The level of
interest and resources allocated for the diplomatic rallying for Afghanistan is
unprecedented in China’s modern history. While competing with the US is a clear
motivator, China also wants to deliver a positive example of its approach to
post-conflict economic reconstruction.
China will not
give the Taliban a free pass. Eventually, China will expect international
(especially regional) recognition of the Taliban government, as well as
domestic reforms, strengthened internal governance, and measurable gains in
combating terrorism. But China is already banking on these developments.
Assuming that the Taliban is receptive, China’s engagement in Afghanistan is
only expected to grow.
The writer is director of the China program and
co-director of the East Asia program at the Stimson Center in Washington, DC.
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