On July 27, Syrian
tanks rolled into the former rebel stronghold of Tafas, in Syria’s Daraa
province. The aggression, ostensibly to root out Daesh supporters, came just
three days after military leaders suggested the operation could be avoided if
the people they sought were voluntarily handed over.
اضافة اعلان
Yet, no matter what the regime claims — or promises,
for that matter — its moves in places like Tafas are part of a larger, more
ambitious, strategy: to consolidate dominance, through a mix of violence and
negotiations, in areas where its authority is still contested.
Compared to other regime-held areas, Daraa
governorate, in Syria’s south, occupies a special status. It was the epicenter
of unrest in 2011 that precipitated the civil war, and today, it remains
stubbornly resistant to President Bashar Al-Assad’s control. Opposition forces
in the region maintain strong support, and unlike other areas reconquered by
Damascus, such as Eastern Ghouta, Daraa is at least partially untamed.
Russia played an early role in delivering this
scenario. A surrender agreement brokered by Russian forces in 2018 gave Tafas
and Daraa Al-Balad, among other districts inside Daraa governorate, a level of
local autonomy under Moscow’s protection. The deal allowed the Assad regime to
reopen state institutions in Daraa, but prevented it from establishing a
military or security presence. It also helped Russia secure its strategic
interests in the region — and ensure that their man in Damascus survived.
This tradeoff was initially convenient for Assad, as
it enabled Damascus to regain territorial control over Syria’s south without
incurring additional losses. But the regime’s recent use of force against towns
that do not have a strong government presence demonstrates that Assad is no
longer content with the arrangement.
The regime cannot rely on overwhelming military
force to capture Daraa’s rebel-held towns, given the potential impact fighting
could have on the national security of neighboring countries, particularly
Jordan. Russia’s repeated calls for restraint also suggest that the Kremlin has
a vested interest in ensuring Syria’s military activities do not breach the
southern border.
Rather than a full-scale assault, then, the Assad
regime looks for smaller opportunities to regain the upper hand. In July 2021,
pro-Assad forces imposed a suffocating military siege on Daraa Al Balad, a
district inside Daraa city. Like last month’s raid, the operation was conducted
under the pretext of capturing Daesh-affiliated individuals, but that time, the
regime insisted on establishing a military presence inside the district.
After weeks of inconclusive negotiations, regime
forces shelled Daraa-Al Balad and attempted to storm it. Eventually, fierce
clashes between the two sides pushed Russia to intervene and broker a new
agreement, known as the “second settlement”.
Opposition forces in the region maintain strong support, and unlike other areas reconquered by Damascus, such as Eastern Ghouta, Daraa is at least partially untamed.
Instead of establishing new checkpoints, Assad
settled for receiving a substantial quantity of light and medium weapons from
former rebel forces. Over the subsequent months, the regime used the excessive
force it had deployed against Daraa Al Balad to threaten other rebel areas to
sign similar deals.
With that task now complete, the regime appears to
be making a move to further tighten its control in Daraa, and Tafas is ground
zero in this strategy.
Last month’s escalation began when town officials
were asked to hand over four alleged Daesh supporters. Knowing that residents
would refuse this demand, the regime began shelling. Fearing what might come
next, residents quickly signed a deal agreeing to expel the wanted individuals
in exchange for the withdrawal of regime troops. After Damascus refused to
withdraw its forces, the deal collapsed. The regime then tried to storm the
city but its attack was repelled by former rebels.
Russia has, once again, sought to mediate. But while
the outcome of such negotiations is still up in the air — and a peaceful
solution is possible — Assad seems poised to use sticks rather than carrots.
His forces have already begun invoking the presence of wanted individuals in
other former rebel areas in Daraa, including Jassim and Al-Yadouda, as a
pretext to justify future escalation. No matter what happens in Tafas, Damascus
will likely try to replicate its intimidation strategy in the rest of the
governorate.
In the end, Assad’s strategy is almost certain to
fail. The Syrian regime’s desire to tighten its grip on former rebel areas in
Daraa will continue to fuel skirmishes and assassinations in the region.
Long-term stability in the south can only be achieved by reaching an agreement
that addresses the root causes of the conflict. In that regard, Russia’s role
is key.
Then, again, any deal would need to be enforced by
independent guarantors to hold all violators accountable. And unfortunately, in
Syria, accountability remains an elusive concept.
Haid Haid is a senior consulting research fellow of Chatham House’s Middle East
and North Africa program. Syndication Bureau.
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