Less than nine months separates us from the US
presidential elections in November, and, according to recent national polls, it
is a dead heat between the two incumbents,
Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Despite
his age, memory lapses, and controversial position on the Gaza war, Biden may
yet survive despite a dismal approval rate of less than 40 percent and a
vicious attack by the Republicans led by none other than Trump himself.
اضافة اعلان
Tuesday’s Michigan primaries will be crucial in many
ways. The state is home to the largest Arab-American community in the country.
The majority voted for Biden in 2020, but now a grassroots movement is calling
on
Arab-American voters to vote “uncommitted” on the ballot to send a strong
message to the White House that come November, he cannot count on their vote.
Even if Trump wins the presidency, they say, it is not on them.
“The Arab- and Muslim-American vote will be key in helping him close the gap that separates him from Trump in national polls.”
Biden’s unequivocal support of Israel’s war on Gaza will
be a factor in deciding his chances of winning a second term. According to
polls, about 60 percent of Americans want a ceasefire in Gaza. Biden risks
losing the support of young Democrats; including Gen. Z, millennial voters, and
progressives. Both have helped him defeat Trump in 2020.
Barring an unexpected event, Biden will contest the
November elections as the Democratic nominee. The Arab- and
Muslim-American vote will be key in helping him close the gap that separates him from Trump in
national polls. Democratic pundits hope that his economic record and
Trump-phobia will come to his rescue.
But he needs to address his record on Israel and its
gross violation of human rights, the laws of war, international humanitarian
law, the Geneva Conventions, and others concerning its belligerent conduct in
Gaza. The American people have no stomach for another month of
genocidal war in Gaza, especially if Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu goes ahead with
an all-out ground offensive on Rafah, home to more than one million people,
against US and
international warnings.
The Biden White House has been trying to adjust its
policy on the war. It is now admitting that far too many Palestinians have been
killed and that Israel’s response so far has been, in Biden’s own words, “over
the top.” Still, his administration continues to
arm Israel and fund the war,
and Netanyahu has ignored Biden’s advice and pleas to bring the military
operation to a swift end.
“The Biden White House has been trying to adjust its policy on the war. It is now admitting that far too many Palestinians have been killed and that Israel’s response so far has been, in Biden’s own words, “over the top.” Still, his administration continues to arm Israel and fund the war.”
It also revived talk about the need for a Palestinian
state through the two-state solution without specifying what that solution
would look like or how it would be implemented when Netanyahu and his far-right
partners adamantly rejected it.
Biden’s hands are tied because it is an election year
where he faces an uphill struggle to get re-elected. He is avoiding a public
quarrel with Netanyahu for fear that the Republicans and Trump will accuse him
of
abandoning Israel for Hamas. But such a clash will come sooner rather than
later: Over Netanyahu’s declaration that Israel will never withdraw from Gaza,
settler rampage in the West Bank, approving building permits for
new Jewish settlements, and even waging total war on Lebanon.
On the other hand, Trump appears to be close to clinching
his party’s nomination as soon as early next month. Israel’s war on Gaza has
not been a centerpiece of his attacks on Biden. He has focused on issues that
matter most to his constituency: Borders and illegal immigration, abortion,
gender issues, and drugs, among others. Republican pundits and conservative
media have also focused on this while siding blindly with Israel and its
decimation of the people of Gaza. When Trump was asked where he stands and what
he would do if he were in charge, he offered incoherent and vague answers. Yes,
he is behind Israel and would not have let Hamas launch the
October 7 attack.
He suggested that the Israel-Hamas war will have to play out.
“So you have a war that is going on, and you are probably
going to have to let this play out,” Trump told Univision a few weeks ago.
“Despite what “Genocide Joe,” as Arab-Americans and young Democratic voters are now calling him, does from now until November, his chances of winning will not be easy.”
Trump would go after Iran and its proxies and would argue
that he would have secured the release of American hostages held by Hamas. He
said he would reject refugees from Gaza from entering the US, and he has called
for ideological screenings for those entering the country. And once again, he
vowed to bar immigrants who support Hamas from entering the US and send
officers to pro-Hamas protests to arrest and deport immigrants who publicly
support it.
He avoided any reference to a Palestinian state or to his
2018 peace plan, which the Palestinians rejected and got tepid attention from
Netanyahu back then.
The fact of the matter is that while Trump cannot but
declare his support for Israel, he has yet to deal with a divided America on
the issue of Palestinian self-determination and Israeli atrocities.
Will a second term for Biden change his approach to the
conflict as he pushes to make the two-state solution happen? One argument is
that Biden would be free of pressure from Congress and lobbies and may want to
repair his policy following the devastation incurred on the Palestinians,
especially in Gaza.
That depends on several factors, including how soon the
war will end, what happens on the day after, the pressure from the
international community and Arab allies to deliver a balanced approach to bring
some justice to the Palestinians, and what happens in Israel itself after the
war and whether Netanyahu and his extremist partners will prevail.
On the other hand, if Trump wins in November, he is
unlikely to do anything quickly unless a regional war has erupted in the Middle
East. One should expect the unexpected from Trump. He may learn from Biden’s
foreign policy faults or opt to be the maverick that he is and decide that
America has had enough of the Middle East and should focus on its real rival,
China, instead.
“The political chaos ripping America apart should come as a wake-up call to the leaders of the Middle East to chart their own course.”
Despite what “Genocide Joe,” as
Arab-Americans and young
Democratic voters are now calling him, does from now until November, his
chances of winning will not be easy. The courts may decide Trump’s fate, and if
he is convicted, his fight to stay in will depend on his ability to finance his
campaigns and legal precedents.
The lesser of two evils will be Biden and a Democratic
administration. Still, in all cases, the political chaos ripping America apart
should come as a wake-up call to the leaders of the Middle East to chart their
own course. No one in the region, apart from a handful of zealots and bigots in
Israel, wants to see a regional war flare up.
And no matter how the war on Gaza ends, the world is
coming to realize that a just and lasting solution to the Palestine issue must
be reached to avoid another Gaza-like catastrophe.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
Disclaimer:
Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Jordan News' point of view.
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