The coattail effect in politics is the theory that the popularity of a
candidate at the top of the ticket redounds to the benefit of those in the same
party down ballot.
اضافة اعلان
You vote
Democratic for president, then you might vote Democratic for senator or mayor.
But what do we
call it when the person from whom the benefit flows is not actually on the
ballot? What if the person is not even personally that popular?
Let us call it
phantom coattails.
That is what I
believe is happening with President Joe Biden at the moment. With a string of
successes, he is building momentum and shaking off narratives of
ineffectiveness.
Last week he
announced that the federal government would forgive billions of dollars of
student loan debt. Republicans predictably squawked about it being an unfair
giveaway. Progressives complained that the plan did not go far enough.
But Biden did
act. He did fulfill his campaign promise, to a degree. That is crucial. After
some major losses — on liberal priorities like voter protections and police
reform — voters needed more wins. It was not Biden’s fault that his agenda was
blocked. For that, the blame goes to obstructionist Republicans and
demi-Democrats like Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.
There was,
however, a sense setting in that electing an elderly institutionalist meant
that he was not filled with enough fight, that he was guided by a sort of
geriatric gentility.
Biden’s recent
wins put a major dent in those perceptions and are changing how people feel
about him. According to FiveThirtyEight’s poll of polls, his approval rating,
while still underwater, has been trending up for the past month. This week it
reached 44 percent, the highest it has been in a year.
It is the
direction of the line that is most important in politics. And I believe that
Biden’s reversal will bode well for other Democrats.
Some of what is
helping Biden is not his success but that of Republicans. The overturning of
Roe v. Wade was monumental and is still stuck in voters’ minds. Many feel they
are stuck in a nightmare and Democrats hold the only possibility of salvation.
Violent crime and inflation loom large in voters’ minds because they have risen to rates that some areas have not seen in decades. People blame Biden for that. It is not in his control, but it is on his watch. That is just the way politics works.
This decision,
this victory by the forced-birth zealots, wiped out the progress Republicans
were making by pushing the anti-wokeness canard — this idea that they had to
fight back against racial indoctrination, against people who would redefine
what a woman is and against health regulation.
The War Against
Woke now looks silly in light of the escalated War Against Women.
Also, Trump has
resurfaced as a foil.
The stench
around him grows stronger as investigations intensify and damning revelations
continue to emerge. They may not alter the fealty of his followers, but they
remind the rest of us of the horror we escaped by ejecting him from office and
how desperately we do not want to return to it.
In fact, the
reemergence of Trump as a constant, prominent feature of national news is
probably one of the greatest assets Democrats have going into the midterms.
Time has a way of softening the perception of ex-presidents.
George W. Bush
went from the man who led the charge on the Iraq War, established the detention
camp at Guantanamo Bay and defended torture to the man who laughed a lot,
painted portraits and passed Michelle Obama candy at funerals.
Retrospection
rehabilitates.
But Trump
refuses to exit the battle. And with every revelation of legal jeopardy and
suspicious movement, he hinders any possibility of rehabilitation.
None of this is
to say that Democrats have a lock on the midterm elections or that they will
not suffer losses, as the ruling party historically has. There are still
headwinds. Violent crime and inflation loom large in voters’ minds because they
have risen to rates that some areas have not seen in decades. People blame
Biden for that. It is not in his control, but it is on his watch. That is just
the way politics works.
However, Biden
keeps adding other things to the other side of the ledger, and on balance, he
and the Democrats keep looking stronger.
There are some
Democrats nervous about campaigning with Biden because of his poor approval
numbers, particularly in competitive districts. But Biden and his successes are
the best things Democrats have right now.
They should
probably take a note from Charlie Crist, who just won the Democratic primary in
Florida to challenge the incumbent governor, Ron DeSantis.
When Crist was
asked last week on CNN if he wanted Biden to campaign with him, he responded in
part by saying of Biden: “He’s a good man. He’s a great man. He’s a great
president. I can’t wait for him to get down here. I need his help. I want his
help.”
Whether other Democrats
want Biden’s help or not, I believe that they are going to need it. Running
away from the leader of your party is never a good idea. It is a particularly
terrible idea when that leader is on a hot streak.
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