As US and Gulf Cooperation Council officials huddled in mid-February to discuss
military coordination that could counter Iran’s destabilizing activity in the
region, an explosive Iranian
drone slammed into an Israeli-owned tanker in the Arabian Sea.
اضافة اعلان
Though committed to GCC security and the freedom of navigation in
the Gulf — a waterway through which a quarter of global energy is shipped — the
US has been unable to intercept Iranian attacks on international vessels or
stop Tehran’s piracy.
America has not responded punitively to years of Iranian
aggression both at sea and across the Middle East or shown enough teeth to
deter Tehran from committing these acts. Washington’s unwillingness to stop
Iranian bullying of this kind raises awkward questions about what benefits
Washington’s Gulf partners get out of their alliance with the US.
Along these lines, a joint US-GCC
statement after
the meeting last month seemingly downgraded America’s commitment to Gulf
security. “Diplomacy remained the preferred way to address Iran’s destabilizing
policies and nuclear escalation in a sustained manner,” the statement read. Connecting
Tehran’s destabilizing activities to diplomacy is unreasonable, if not outright
impossible, given that Iran has refused to discuss with world powers any issues
that are not about its nuclear program.
President Joe Biden has committed to reviving the 2015 Iran
nuclear deal, which curbed Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions
relief. His predecessor Donald Trump withdrew the US from the agreement as part
of a tougher approach to Iran. Yet Biden’s team have failed to make headway
with the talks, and Pentagon officials recently warned that Iran
could now produce enough material for a nuclear bomb within just 12
days.
This makes Biden’s policy on Iran look even more toothless, not
only because Washington insists on diplomacy, but because such diplomacy has no
timetable or deadlines. Iran will agree to diplomacy whenever Iran agrees, or
to put it in the words of Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the ball
is in Iran’s court. And if Iran never agrees to talk, and continues to enrich
uranium and threaten Gulf navigation, the US will just sit back and watch.
Washington, it turns out, still believes that an Iranian “change
in behavior” is possible, a policy reminiscent of the days of former President
Barack Obama. “Iran’s leadership could choose a better alternative that would
contribute to a more secure and stable region and benefit the Iranian people,”
said the US-GCC statement.
Betting on “behavior change” is based on the assumption that once
Iran is reconnected to the global economy, its officials will have a vested
interest in abandoning their troublemaking policies to keep money flowing to
their coffers. Such a policy was tested between 2016 and 2018. It failed
miserably.
Other than the endless rounds of talks with Iran in Vienna or
other European capitals, the Biden team seems to be out of ideas on how to
defend America’s Gulf allies. The Iran regime often tells its Gulf neighbors
that the US will never come to their rescue and that the only
guarantee for
their security is to bend to Tehran’s wishes. The Biden administration seems ok with such an
arrangement.
But Washington has been trying to impress on GCC countries that
their alliance with the US is worthwhile. In its most recent National
Security Strategy, the Biden administration said that instead of military force, it
will “strengthen partner capacity” by “enabling regional security integration”
and “enabling our partners to defend their territory.”
Enabling partners’ defenses requires, in the very least,
guaranteeing them a steady flow of arms, something that America’s Democrats have
been using
as a political tool.
If the US wants to build the defense capabilities of its allies,
arms supply should never be up for bargaining, especially given that America is
not giving these weapons out for free but for colossal amounts of money. If
Washington is not willing to sell defense to these countries, then Gulf
capitals might want to fetch defense contractors elsewhere.
Policy disagreements between allies are normal. What is not
normal, however, is Washington’s unpredictable swings in its relations with
Gulf countries. There are days when America’s relations are incumbent on
principles — especially human rights. Then there are other days when
the US forgets about human rights and demands that GCC members export as much
oil as they can. In both cases, the US quickly escalates to threats of ending
arms sales.
Whatever its Gulf policy, the Biden administration’s approach
should be coherent. Since he took office that has simply not been the case.
Most Americans wish to see democracy spread to every corner on
earth. Yet experience has shown that military power alone cannot force
democracy on nations that are not ready for it. Experience has also shown that
America today lacks the endurance required to build democratic nations, like it
did in Germany and Japan post World War II.
The less the US is willing to get involved in global affairs, the
more realistic it has to become when dealing with the world. Washington must
deal with countries — friends or foes — as they are, not as the US likes them
to be.
When American foreign policy becomes more predictable, GCC allies
will know where to stand and what to expect, unlike the rollercoaster
relationship that they have been having with Washington of late.
Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a research fellow at the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research
institute focusing on national security and foreign policy. Twitter: @hahussain
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