Despite initial denials by both countries, Iran confirmed
this week that it was engaged in indirect talks with the US in Oman last month
over Tehran’s nuclear program. Several Western media reports confirmed that US
Mideast coordinator Brett McGurk and Iran’s top nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri
Kan were in the Omani capital, Muscat, at the same time in early May and that
Omani officials acted as intermediaries. Both the
US and Iran denied that talks
centered on reaching an interim agreement, with Iranian officials insisting on
reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement, also known as JCPOA. That agreement, which
the Trump administration pulled out of in 2018, had been endorsed by the UN
Security Council resolution 2231 in July 2015.
اضافة اعلان
According to American reports, the US passed a message to
Iran that it would face a severe response if it reached the 90 percent uranium
enrichment levels required for use in a nuclear weapon. According to the
International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA,
Iran has at least 114kg of uranium enriched up to 60 percent purity.
Israel, too, has warned that it will never
allow Iran to come close to the 90 percent enrichment level.
Following US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to
Saudi Arabia last week, which must have focused on threats posed by Iran’s
nuclear program, and the leaking of reports regarding possible progress in
negotiations, Israeli Prime Minister
Benyamin Netanyahu told Blinken that an
agreement with Iran would not bind
Israel and that it will take necessary steps
to protect its national security.
Iran insists on reviving the 2015 agreement, while the West wants to tie the deal to other issues, such as Tehran’s controversial ballistic missiles program, curbing the regional activities of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, and allowing the IAEA to carry out a full investigation of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
On the other hand,
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei said earlier this week that a deal with the West over the nuclear
program is possible, but only if Tehran can keep its nuclear infrastructure
intact. Since the US pulled out of the agreement and imposed sanctions, Iran
began to install advanced centrifuges and raised its uranium enrichment levels
to more than 60 percent. It also prevented IAEA monitors from inspecting some
facilities and is believed to have built new ones and expanded others.
Previous attempts by the Biden administration and Western
partners to engage Iran in a bid to reach a new agreement were unsuccessful.
Iran insists on reviving the 2015 agreement, while the West wants to tie the
deal to other issues, such as Tehran’s controversial ballistic missiles
program, curbing the regional activities of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, and
allowing the IAEA to carry out a full investigation of
Iran’s nuclear facilities.
For a while, it looked like the Biden administration was no
longer interested in pursuing further talks with Iran. But several factors have
forced it to re-engage. Russia’s war in Ukraine has brought Moscow and Tehran
closer than ever, and Iran is believed to have supplied Russia with advanced
drones and is helping the Russians build a drone factory. In return, Tehran may
get its hands on the first batch of state-of-the-art SU-35 fighter jets from
Moscow as early as this month. And last week,
Iran unveiled a hyper sonic missile it claims can hit
Israel in 400 seconds while outmaneuvering the Iron
Dome defense system. The technology to develop such a sophisticated system
could only come from Russia or North Korea.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has brought Moscow and Tehran closer than ever, and Iran is believed to have supplied Russia with advanced drones and is helping the Russians build a drone factory.
Also, the recent China-mediated deal between Saudi Arabia
and Iran to normalize ties has taken the US by surprise. Since Biden was
elected, relations between Riyadh and Washington have gone through rough
periods. At the same time, the Saudis have adopted an independent foreign
policy approach that saw improved ties with both China and Russia. Feeling its
regional influence waning, Washington has made an about-face, seeking to revive
ties with Riyadh and sending its top diplomats there.
The thaw in
Saudi-Iran ties has reflected in the Gulf region
and beyond. Earlier this month, the commander of Iran's naval forces, Admiral
Shahram Irani, announced that the Islamic Republic wants to form a joint
maritime alliance with the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Pakistan, and India.
Saudi Arabia is also interested in “heading in this direction,” Irani said. The
announcement came a few days after the UAE decided to quit the Joint Maritime
Forces led by the US.
The change in Washington’s attitude towards talks with Iran
underlines geopolitical concerns as well as fears that the suspension of the
nuclear deal has only played into Tehran’s hands in many ways. US threats of
resorting to
force against Iran are no longer in sync with regional
developments. Its key allies in the region,
save for Israel, are now actively
talking to Iran, with some, like Egypt, on the verge of restoring ties with
Tehran.
These allies now favor a diplomatic resolution to the Iran
nuclear program issue. This week, the GCC issued a statement calling on Iran to
commit to working with the IAEA and called for involving the Gulf States in
possible negotiations to meet the GCC’s security concerns.
Interestingly, the US seems to have allowed Baghdad to
release over $3 billion to Iran in overdue payments, a sign that some of
Tehran’s demands are being met. Also, a prisoners’ exchange is expected to take
place between Iran and the US in the coming days, according to Iranian
officials.
A deal, interim or not, would be good for the region and for the world. But it might not help Biden and the Democrats in the coming elections cycle. Both will get a lot of flak from Republican candidates, as well as from the current Israeli government.
A deal, interim or not, would be good for the region and for
the world. But it might not help Biden and the Democrats in the coming
elections cycle. Both will get a lot of flak from Republican candidates, as
well as from the current Israeli government. This week, a bipartisan letter
from 35 members of the US Congress called on European parties to the 2015 Iran
nuclear deal to "snap back" sanctions on Iran for non-compliance.
In fact, any agreement reached will almost certainly give
former President Donald Trump and other Republican hopefuls the ammunition to
tear down the Biden re-election campaign. This is how hard it will be for the
White House to decide its next move. Not doing anything
risks Israel and Iran finding themselves in an open war with an unpredictable outcome. Securing a
deal will harm Biden’s chances, while a return of Trump or a Republican
hardliner may make a new agreement a short-lived one.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator
based in Amman.
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