Russian air force pilots are scaredy-cats
who have been surprisingly absent over Ukraine. Russian ground forces are being
mowed down as cannon fodder, and one of the best-known examples of Russian
military discipline involves an officer using a sledgehammer to execute a
fellow Russian.
اضافة اعلان
But the Russian war effort does excel in
some areas:
— It stands out at committing atrocities.
In my interviews in Ukraine, I was struck by how commonly Russian troops
engaged in torture, rape, and pillage.
— Russia’s government has become a leader
in child trafficking, transferring more than 6,000 Ukrainian children to Russia
or Russian-controlled territory, with some put up for adoption.
— Russia has manipulated Western fears that
it might use nuclear weapons, thus deterring the US from fully supporting
Ukraine in this war. We give Ukraine enough to survive but, so far, not enough
to win.
So a year after Vladimir Putin’s all-out
invasion of Ukraine, it is time for President Joe Biden to reassess and give
Ukraine what it needs to end this war and save Ukrainian and Russian lives
alike.
“Putin is all-in, and we should be as well. That means fighter aircraft, ATACMS, high-end anti-ship cruise missiles — the kitchen sink.”
“We are well past the point of trying to
measure this a few systems at a time,” said James Stavridis, a retired
four-star admiral and supreme allied commander at NATO. “Putin is all-in, and
we should be as well. That means fighter aircraft, ATACMS, high-end anti-ship
cruise missiles — the kitchen sink.”
Sponsoring serious measures
More on specific hardware in a moment. But
many military experts agree that while Biden has generally done well in
supporting Ukraine, we should be doing even more.
“We’re modulating what we’re giving
Ukraine,” said Wesley Clark, a retired four-star general and NATO supreme
allied commander. “We’re bleeding out the Ukrainians. People are dying as a
result.”
“If we want to end the war with a
negotiated peace, we have to figure out the battlefield situation that will
lead to a successful negotiation,” Clark added. “That probably requires going
after Crimea in a serious way to convince Putin that he can’t win.”
Beyond Ukraine
It is also important to send a message — to
Xi Jinping as well as Putin — that invasions do not pay. Of all the
geopolitical nightmares ahead, perhaps the most horrific is a war over Taiwan,
and one way to reduce that risk may be to ensure that Putin lives a nightmare
today.
So this is not just about Ukraine. Viktor
Yushchenko, a former president of Ukraine who was mysteriously poisoned after he
challenged Russian interests, said that Ukraine is a hostage in the larger
Russian challenge to the global order. “It is disappointing that the West has
failed to grasp this and to define what victory really means. It is not just
ensuring that Ukraine wins, but also guaranteeing future international
security.”
Of all the geopolitical nightmares ahead, perhaps the most horrific is a war over Taiwan, and one way to reduce that risk may be to ensure that Putin lives a nightmare today.
To his great credit, Biden has strongly
backed Ukraine, held together support of allies and provided training for
Ukrainian forces and increasingly powerful weaponry. Over time, the US has
agreed to send HIMARS rocket launchers, Patriot missile systems, and M1 Abrams
tanks — although the Patriots and Abrams tanks have yet to arrive.
Is the nuclear risk real?
Biden has pursued gradualism because of
legitimate concerns that if Putin is backed into a corner, he could lash out at
NATO territory or use tactical nuclear weapons. “We believe it would be
irresponsible if we weren’t thinking about escalation,” said a senior
administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, and that is true.
But most analysts think it is unlikely that Putin would use tactical nuclear
weapons, partly because they would achieve little on the battlefield and would
antagonize China and India.
“Why would they do this in a fit of anger
and get all the negative outcomes?” asked Ben Hodges, a retired lieutenant
general and commander of Army forces in Europe. “I think we have just deterred
ourselves.”
While the risk of escalation cannot be
ruled out, it must be balanced against the risks of allowing this conflict to
drag on as Ukrainians and Russians are killed daily. Putin will negotiate
seriously when he sees no military path forward — and that may happen if his
hold on Crimea becomes untenable.
“Right now, what’s decisive is Crimea,”
Hodges added. With the right support and long-range precision weaponry, he
believes, Ukraine could cut the land and sea bridges that connect Russia to
Crimea, even liberate Crimea by the end of the summer.
That would present risks — but also could
set the stage for negotiations and an end to the war.
“The quickest way to end the killing is to help Ukraine win the war.”
Hodges recommends Biden provide Ukraine
with ATACMS long-range missiles and powerful Gray Eagle drones while supporting
the transfer of MiG-29 and F-16 fighter aircraft to Ukraine. I think Biden will
get there eventually, but lives would most likely be saved if he got there this
month rather than six months from now.
“The quickest way to end the killing is to
help Ukraine win the war,” Hodges said.
Read more Opinion and Analysis
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