In the classic movie, “The Shawshank Redemption,” there is a moment
where Andy Dufresne dreams of a life beyond the prison’s walls, symbolizing the
power of hope and ambition against all odds. This beautifully mirrors the
scenario faced at COP28. Just as Dufresne faced the formidable walls of
Shawshank, world leaders at COP28 set ambitious targets to escape from fossil
fuels in a “just, orderly, and equitable manner.”
اضافة اعلان
The
Dubai Consensus marks a pivotal moment in
the history of climate agreements. For the first time since the inaugural COP
in Berlin in 1995, there is an explicit reference to fossil fuels and the need
to transition away from them to halt global warming. Previous agreements have
broadly referred to just reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This general
approach persisted until the 26th COP in Glasgow in 2021 when a more
specific commitment was made to address the
most polluting of fossil fuels, coal. There, nations consented to a gradual reduction in its
usage. The Dubai Consensus, however, has also recognized the need to triple
renewable energy capacity globally by 2030 and accelerate efforts toward the
“phase down of unabated coal power.”
Achieving these ambitious goals is undoubtedly a daunting
challenge. The deep-rooted dependence on fossil fuels, the disparate economic
strengths of nations, particularly those in the developing world, and the
hurdles presented by existing technology create formidable barriers. Like the
imposing walls of Shawshank, they are seemingly insurmountable yet not
entirely impervious. The path forward is difficult but not unattainable,
demanding perseverance and concerted global effort.
The journey toward phasing out coal presents three significant
challenges, particularly for developing countries.
The first concern is energy security. Phasing out coal is a
complex task; it currently accounts for approximately 26 percent of the world's energy
consumption. Notably, 81 percent of coal used in energy production is in
countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
indicating that it is predominantly developing nations relying on coal to meet
their energy needs.
Consequently, eliminating coal usage substantially threatens
their energy security, placing the onus of the transition away from fossil
fuels on these countries. However, the lack of affordable and clean alternative
energy sources and difficulties in technology transfer make this transition
particularly challenging.
Second, a rapid transition away from coal could exacerbate
poverty, particularly in regions within developing countries where coal is a
critical economic pillar. Many developing countries have states or provinces
that depend
heavily on coal for revenue and employment. A swift phase-out could disrupt these economies, leading to
increased poverty and socio-economic instability.
Further, the costs of energy transition in developing countries
often directly impact household budgets. These measures can lead to higher
costs for electricity, water and transportation. The increased expense can be
particularly burdensome in countries where a significant portion of the
population already struggles with economic instability. While these policies
are crucial for long-term environmental sustainability, their immediate
financial impact on households in developing nations poses a significant challenge.
Therefore, the transition needs to balance environmental goals with economic
feasibility and the socio-economic well-being of the populations most reliant
on coal.
Developing countries often argue that global discussions on
reducing fossil fuel usage disproportionately focus on coal instead of equally
addressing oil and natural gas. These nations, with significant coal reserves
and a heavy reliance on coal for their energy, see the rapid phasing out of
coal as a risk to their economic stability.
Moreover, there is a sense of inequity in how developed
countries, traditionally large coal, oil and gas consumers, advocate for
diminishing coal usage, a vital energy source for many emerging economies.
While the coal usage of OECD countries has declined, according to the
Statistical Review of the World Energy 2023, oil consumption by OECD countries increased by 1.4 million
barrels per day in 2022. This viewpoint suggests a bias in international
climate negotiations, advocating for a more balanced approach that equally
considers the reduction of all types of fossil fuels.
A third challenge for developing nations in transitioning to
clean energy is access to capital and financing. The
UN Environment Program's Adaptation Gap Report estimates these countries need $215–387 billion yearly
until 2030. The Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance's
second report reveals a stark reality:
only 7 percent of 2022's clean energy investments were in low and
lower-middle-income nations, except China. These countries face daunting
barriers like high-interest rates, vague policies and expensive capital.
To achieve the Paris Agreement, a substantial boost in renewable
energy is crucial for emerging markets and developing countries. The key lies
in a fivefold increase in concessional finance by 2030, as this is the most
crucial yet scarce funding source for pressing needs. Developed nations must
triple their bilateral concessional contributions by 2030. However, the scale
of need surpasses what official development assistance can provide.
Similar to Shawshank's formidable barriers, these obstacles make
the path forward extremely challenging but not impossible. Addressing these
hurdles is crucial, for without overcoming them, the transition will remain as
elusive as Andy Dufresne's dream of freedom within the confines of Shawshank.
Aditya Sinha is an Officer on Special Duty, Research, at the
Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India. X: @adityasinha004
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