Last weekend, Saudi Arabia hosted a
two-day summit in Jeddah dedicated
to ending the war in Ukraine. Nearly 40 countries attended, including the
United States, India, and dozens across Europe. But it was the presence of one
nation that raised expectations for a breakthrough – China.
اضافة اعلان
China had rejected a similar meeting in
Copenhagen
Because China had rejected a similar meeting in Copenhagen
in late June, many interpreted its participation this time as evidence Beijing
was ready to play a more active role. But an examination of the context
surrounding the Jeddah summit suggests a different motivation for China’s
involvement. Simply put, peace wasn’t Beijing’s primary concern.
Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, in
February 2022, Beijing has avoided anything that would compromise its
neutrality or force it to explicitly take a side. This principle of neutrality
made it impossible for China to attend the June meeting, given that Denmark is
a member of NATO.
Claim NATO involvement
Although NATO is not directly at war with
Russia, its military support to Ukraine gives the Kremlin ammunition to
claim NATO involvement. For China, attending the Copenhagen meeting
without Russian participation would have tarnished Beijing’s image of
objectivity.
By comparison, Saudi Arabia, one of the leading
middle powers in the Global South, was a more acceptable host from the Chinese
perspective. Saudi Arabia has voted in favor of several UN General Assembly
resolutions condemning Russia and demanding an end to the war. But it also abstained
from a 2022 vote to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council, and the
two countries have been on a more coordinated path recently over oil production
and global crude supply. This more nuanced position has made the Kingdom a more
natural partner for Beijing.
But image concerns aside, what is driving
China’s involvement now?
For starters, participating in the Jeddah summit
was more about China’s desire to continue sweetening ties with Saudi Arabia
than any intention to condemn or force Russia’s hand in Ukraine. China and
Saudi Arabia have an important bilateral relationship driven by
politics, energy, and trade. Thus, Chinese leaders
believe they can endear themselves to the Kingdom by supporting Riyadh’s
diplomatic efforts on Ukraine.
Not a pact to act
Even if that calculation is wrong, attending
talks costs China nothing. A summit is only an agreement to discuss, not a pact
to act.
Even if a consensus among participating
countries was reached – it was not– neither Saudi Arabia nor its guests could
have imposed their will on Russia (which was excluded from the discussion). In
that sense, the Jeddah summit positions Saudi Arabia as a peace mediator but
doesn’t bring fundamental damage to China’s bottom line.
For Beijing, any “neutral” efforts to pursue
peace and stability must be honored. This month’s summit could be framed as one
such effort given the diverse participation and views represented. Now that
China has lent its support to the Saudi endeavor, it wouldn’t be surprising for
Beijing to demand reciprocity from Riyadh for its own peace initiative down the
road.
Second, China’s participation in peace talks was
facilitated by a recent thaw in the US-China relationship. Chinese President Xi
Jinping is expected to
visit San Francisco in November, which would be
one of his most important foreign policy activities of the year. Both countries
are trying to rebuild bilateral relations before expected turbulence in 2024,
when presidential elections will be held in both Taiwan and the US.
Finally, Beijing has been a bit more cooperative
with the West’s efforts to squeeze Russia over its conduct in Ukraine. Recent
moves in this regard are subtle but clear. In July, Beijing imposed new
export control measures on
Chinese drones, parts, and technologies, dual-use supplies that Russia had been
receiving from China directly or via subsidiaries in Iran.
China also urged the resumption of grain exports
In a thinly veiled criticism of Russia, China
also
urged the resumption of grain exports from Ukraine after Russia backed out of the Black Sea grain
deal – which had allowed Ukraine to export wheat, barley, and other staples.
Most recently, in a rare public display of displeasure, the Chinese embassy in
Russia criticized local authorities for
mistreating Chinese citizens.
The key question in all of this is whether China
has fundamentally changed its position on the war. The answer, so far, is no.
None of the actions China has taken in recent months have imposed critical
damage on Russia’s war capability or induced meaningful changes to Russian
behavior.
In fact, given the long-term nature of US-China
competition, China is unlikely to abandon Russia as a strategic partner, even
if Russia is weakened in Ukraine. For China, Ukraine – and even Saudi Arabia –
are part of a grand political chess match that Beijing has no intention of
losing.
Yun Sun is director of
the China program and co-director of the East Asia program
at the Stimson Center in Washington, DC.
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