A fight is brewing between the Biden
administration and Congress over Turkey’s request to purchase F-16 fighter
aircraft. Congressional leaders, upset at Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan for buying Russian arms and human rights violations under his
authoritarian system, have expressed their strong opposition. The Turkish
request for 40 new aircraft and upgrade kits for existing F-16s comes after the
US decision to kick Turkey out of the F-35 fifth generation aircraft program.
اضافة اعلان
Turkey’s air force is composed almost exclusively of
260 fourth generation American-made F-16s. Turkey was well placed to make the
necessary transition to the F-35 with its advanced stealth technology. Ankara
was not only scheduled to purchase 100 of these fighters, it was also set to
become a manufacturing locale for important parts of the aircraft as well as a
maintenance hub for F-35s operating in other NATO countries. Both activities
would have provided Turkey with technology transfer and an opportunity for
earning sizable foreign exchange revenues.
All this collapsed when Turkey ordered advanced
Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles despite repeated and unequivocal warnings
from both the executive and legislative branches of the US government. The US
feared that a Turkish S-400 purchase would enable the Russians to glean
information on the F-35s’ stealth capabilities. Dire US admonitions
notwithstanding, Erdogan went ahead and took delivery of the Russian system in
2019. He probably assumed that the US, as it always did in the past, would
eventually find a way to acquiesce to his wishes. He simply was wrong; he had
completely misunderstood the mood in Washington.
This was a costly error that also drew US punishment
under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. Overnight,
Turkey lost out on all the program’s economic benefits and found itself with an
air force saddled with fighters that would soon be outclassed by those of its
rivals. Hence the panicked intermediate request last year for F-16s.
For better or for worse, Turkey is a NATO ally and will remain so. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global politics are rapidly evolving in an unpredictable direction. The US has, therefore, an interest in Turkey maintaining a robust air force.
The case for and against selling the F-16s is
complicated. Congressional leaders have lost confidence in Erdogan and his
government. While long-standing NATO allies, friction between Ankara and
Washington has reached a rare peak. The barrage of anti-Americanism emanating
from the Turkish government alone has been an important contributor to the
public’s unfavorable view of the US.
Turkey under Erdogan has been a revisionist actor in
its region, challenging, sometimes forcibly, efforts by Greece, Cyprus, and
Israel to market newly found natural gas to Europe. Erdogan’s descent into
authoritarianism has seen him use the judiciary and security services to jail
opponents, including journalists, intellectuals and civil society leaders on at
best spurious grounds. From this viewpoint, Congressional opposition is
perfectly understandable.
Yet, there is another perspective. For better or for
worse, Turkey is a NATO ally and will remain so. After Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine, global politics are rapidly evolving in an unpredictable direction.
The US has, therefore, an interest in Turkey maintaining a robust air force.
The F-16 deal is with Turkey and not Erdogan. The
F-16s will be in service long after Erdogan exits the political scene.
Paradoxically, selling the F-16s could accomplish much of what Congress would
like to see and more.
First, the deal closes the door on the F-35 program.
In fact, the request for the F-16s has been a humiliating experience for
Erdogan. After the tough US reaction to the S-400 purchase he doubled down by
suggesting that he would buy another such battery and, if the US refused to
sell fighter jets, he would simply procure them from Russia instead. Now, the
Ukraine war makes it hard to contemplate anyone buying anything from Russia,
much less sophisticated military equipment. In other words, he is stuck.
This presents the US with an opportunity to not just
turn the tables on Erdogan but to also attach some real conditions to this
purchase. With his economy in the doldrums and a pending election, Erdogan has
been on a charm offensive as he tries to improve relations with all the
countries he alienated with his policies, starting with the UAE, Israel, Egypt
and Saudi Arabia. In sheathing his revisionist and bombastic approach, he is
reversing course.
This should also apply to relations with the US.
Washington must insist that there will be a price to pay when Erdogan’s
ministers and allies call the US Turkey’s main enemy. Along with this, the
Biden administration should also push Turkey to halt its domestic repression
and release political opponents from prison. The administration can play good
cop, bad cop by arguing that only such moves would make the F-16 deal
acceptable to the Hill.
State Department Undersecretary for Political
Affairs Victoria Nuland was in Ankara recently to ink a vague new strategic
concept with Turkey. This can provide the framework under which these changes
can be advanced. If it works, this is a win for both Congress and the White
House.
Still, this is not going to be easy as many minds in
Washington must be changed. Erdogan is mistaken if he thinks the Ukraine crisis
will give him a pass. Only a genuine shift on his part will produce a desired
transformation in the quality of the mutual relationship.
The writer is the Cohen professor of international
relations at Lehigh University in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, and an adjunct
senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council of Foreign Relations.
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