In recent weeks, Abu Dhabi experienced unexpected internal
threats, with Yemeni Houthis targeting the UAE capital. Though such attacks are
conventional and can be contained, this development might present a serious
problem for a country like UAE with an economy based on stability and security.
اضافة اعلان
Last Wednesday, the Iraqi armed group “Awliyat Al-Waad
Al-Haq” claimed responsibility for a drone attack on UAE. In an open statement,
the group said it was launching “four drones targeting vital facilities in Abu
Dhabi” in retaliation for the UAE policies in Iraq and Yemen.
This new development is indeed critical; it widens the
confrontation front targeting UAE not only for its direct involvement in the
war in Yemen, as claimed by the Houthis, but also for its policies on other
countries, i.e., Iraq. Thus, the situation creates the need for a wider
interpretation of the war and identification of the countries who perceive the
adopted policies of UAE as a serious threat.
According to Iran’s state news agency IRNA, the drone
attacks happened at the same time Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein
Amirabdollahian was having a telephone conversation with his UAE counterpart
Abdullah bin Zayed, tackling issues pertinent to the crisis in Yemen. The key
element of this conversation as reported by IRNA is Amirabdollahian stating
that “the Zionist regime’s presence is a threat to the regional security,” in
reference to the normalization of ties between Israel and some Gulf countries,
including the UAE.
It also coincided with the visit of the Israeli president to
the UAE.
The Houthis claim that their attack on UAE is linked
directly to UAE involvement in the war in Yemen, especially the recent tactics
adopted by UAE which cause big losses to the Houthis.
Yet, the policies adopted by UAE in the region at large also
represent a serious concern. During the Trump administration, Abu Dhabi adopted
policies that were perceived as reshaping a wider regional scene through
normalization of relations with Israel at Arab level and the promotion of the
Abraham accords at international level. Hence, the current attacks on UAE and
the harsh position of Iran-sponsored militias indicate that the UAE role in the
Yemeni war is not the only factor triggering such attacks, and that the UAE has
replaced Saudi Arabia as the main target of such confrontation.
Amid this heightened tension in the Gulf, the Israeli
response emerged through its Defense Minister Benny Gantz who paid an unannounced
visit to Bahrain. The visit, which was announced after his arrival in Manama,
was crowned by the signing of a security cooperation agreement, along with the
neighboring UAE. For Israel, such military cooperation could help counter
Iran’s “power projection” in the region. For the Gulf countries, the agreement
represents the first example of policies that have direct implications at home.
This kind of proxy war usually cannot be solved by war; not
by defense strategy nor by deploying more missiles. It is an escalation of a
conflict that cannot be resolved without a clear political strategy to be
adopted individually by the Gulf countries, derived from realistic factors,
such as the nature of the state, the level of power, demography and, foremost,
geography.
The writer is a Jordanian university professor and geopolitical expert. He is a leading columnist in national, regional, and international media, offers consultancies to think tanks and speaks at international conferences on Middle East politics and developments.
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