The recent escalations in the West Bank and Jerusalem continue to be
one of the most crucial developments that threaten to trigger widespread
violence and instability. Many have expected the situation to deteriorate due
to Israel’s flag march, where thousands of Israelis marched toward East
Jerusalem. Yet, Palestinian groups, including Hamas, have not responded.
اضافة اعلان
This lack of
action raised some eyebrows, leading many to question the reasons behind the
silence.
Undertaking a
passive approach might have resulted from a mutual target to safeguard Naftali
Bennett’s government and avoid the return of Benjamin Netanyahu, at least for
the Palestinian actors. However, the silent approach might not continue with
the increasing tension and the actors having very limited options.
President Joe
Biden’s visit to the region, which was postponed tentatively till July, might
inaugurate a new phase of economic cooperation and push forward the peace
process towards expanding the Abraham Accords with new countries. It will also
highlight the need for the US to reunite its allies as part of its global
policy to counter Russia and China.
However, issues
are expected during the anticipated visit, the first being US-Saudi relations,
which have seen a long period of cold relations. Secondly, regional instability
is widespread. Across the region, the return of Daesh is possible, amongst
other threats.
In Syria, there
are serious indicators of the possible return of Daesh in the Raqqa region. The
Turkish return to the north of Syria might also create a new conflict which
gives fertile grounds for Daesh insurgents to return.
South of Syria is
again becoming a source of serious threats and risks for Jordan, especially
involving Iran-sponsored militias who antagonize Jordan and represent a real
threat to Jordan’s national security.
The US’ efforts might be a good attempt to counter an escalation. But, it is important to remember that the general situation in the region is likely not favorable for a long-term stability plan.
This risk is not
limited to drug smuggling but also Iran’s desire to transform Jordan into a
weapon smuggling transit hub to the West Bank, which underlines the proxy war
that Iran always sought in its confrontation with Israel.
Iraq is also
suffering from similar threats, with Daesh gaining ground and pro-Iranian
groups strongly obstructing the political process. Finally, Lebanon, with its
fragile domestic situation, only adds more security challenges to the region.
So, the US’
efforts might be a good attempt to counter an escalation. But, it is important
to remember that the general situation in the region is likely not favorable
for a long-term stability plan.
Although there is
some optimism regarding ambitious plans and opportunities for a wide regional
economic cooperation, many factors might reinforce instability, especially with
the presence of a wide network of criminality and the return of terrorist
groups and, above all, politically exploited militias.
The writer is a Jordanian university professor and
geopolitical expert. He is a leading columnist in national, regional, and
international media, offers consultancies to think tanks and speaks at international
conferences on Middle East politics and developments.
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