Regardless of where one stands on the Israeli war on Gaza; when
the dust finally settles on the killing fields, the world will not be the same.
The 7 October attack by Hamas militants on southern Israel and what followed in
the form of a frenzied Israeli reaction has polarized the world in a way not
seen since the 2003 US-UK invasion of Iraq. That attack has significantly
altered the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict trajectory for both sides and beyond.
It is an understatement to declare that this latest war in the Middle East will
have resounding aftershocks that will rattle an already teetering world order.
The comparisons with Russia’s war on Ukraine notwithstanding.
اضافة اعلان
Before this
war settles down—and no one knows how it will, one should look at how the
Israeli side reacted: The Hamas attack was spectacular in a
dark sense for Israel. The pain, the humiliation, the scandalous breach of the most
technologically watched fence surrounding a 17-year-old siege of the Gaza Strip
was mind-boggling. Israel will investigate this one day, as it did following
the 1973 war, and heads will roll. We may never know the whole truth for months
and maybe years.
Israel in
an expected conundrum
The
Israeli reaction was expected: Full, unrestricted aerial bombardment of Gaza. We have
seen this before. But this time, the declared goals of the campaign have
changed: Total eradication of Hamas’ military and political infrastructure.
That can only be achieved through a significant land invasion; which is yet to
happen.
Failure to do this, a short land incursion would mean a Hamas win—despite the hefty civilian casualties. A longer one means to face two possible scenarios: enormous Israeli losses in the south and a possible flaring up of the northern front with Hezbollah. The prospect of the latter taking place means a regional war with unexpected results.
But that is
not all. It now appears that the
Israeli Prime Minister, whom most Israelis
blame for this gross failure, and his war cabinet, hope to do more than
decapitate Hamas. They want to drive millions of Gazans into Egypt; call it
forced transfer, or ethnic cleansing; whatever the case it is a war crime.
Failure to
do this, a short land incursion would mean a Hamas win—despite the hefty
civilian casualties. A longer one means to face two possible scenarios:
enormous Israeli losses in the south and a possible flaring up of the northern
front with Hezbollah. The prospect of the latter taking place means a regional
war with unexpected results.
So for now,
Israel is resorting to massive bombing of the northern part of Gaza; forcing
millions to head to the south and hoping to create a buffer zone of 3, 5, even
9-kilometers. Is that a price Israel is willing to accept to end the war?
Difficult to know!
Hamas
playing with fire
On the
side, there is Hamas, A militant group that has been in control of Gaza for
more than a decade and a half and that, after many lethal rounds with Israel,
has proven to have become stronger, not weaker. The 7 October offensive has
been planned for years. Whether it anticipated the magnitude of Israel’s slow
response to that offensive or not, or if its sole goal was to take some
hostages to negotiate the release of more than 1000 Palestinians in Israeli
prisons, we will never know. But it now finds itself in an open war with
Israel—a state with superior firepower and political backing from Western
governments.
It is clear
that more than two weeks of brutal bombing by Israel—by last count, more than
5,000 Palestinians are dead, including children and women—has done minor damage
to its military infrastructure. Hamas has learned the lessons of the 2014 war
and is using a Hezbollah war game playbook.
It is
readying itself for a ground offensive and will use 20th-century guerilla
warfare tactics against a 21st-century hi-tech army. If it happens, the
confrontation will be something that history books will refer to for many years.
Iran and
Hezbollah keep Israel guessing
So what
about Iran and Hezbollah? This is the most pressing question on the minds of
millions. The US has moved two aircraft carriers to the Eastern Mediterranean,
along with elite forces and strategic missile batteries, for fear of a
Hezbollah-Iran involvement. So far, Hezbollah has responded to Israeli provocations
and is adopting a vague position; keeping the Israelis guessing.
The fear is
that an embattled and disgraced Benjamin Netanyahu will want to lure the United
States into another Middle Eastern war to cover for his unabashed attempt to
alter the genetic DNA of a self-proclaimed Israel. He is a dangerous man who
would do anything to save his skin. That would be catastrophic for the US, the
region, and inevitably Israel. He must not be allowed to use the 7 October
calamity to ignite a wider regional war.
Having said
this, the Western governments’ reaction has been myopic and irresponsible.
Starting with President Joe Biden, the European leaders parroted the White
House position that Israel had the right to defend itself. The hypocrisy and
double standards were simply disgusting. Forget about Ukraine. The calamity and
suffering of the Palestinians has been going on for decades. Israel’s impunity
has been allowed for so many years without empathy for the hellish conditions
of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank—both occupied by a flagrant Israeli
occupation.
The fear is that an embattled and disgraced Benjamin Netanyahu will want to lure the United States into another Middle Eastern war to cover for his unabashed attempt to alter the genetic DNA of a self-proclaimed Israel. He is a dangerous man who would do anything to save his skin. That would be catastrophic for the US, the region, and inevitably Israel. He must not be allowed to use the 7 October calamity to ignite a wider regional war.
Israel’s
occupation is the longest in modern history. It’s a European colonial legacy
that started as far back as the 19th century. The historical narrative has been
neutralized by Zionist propaganda for decades, but in this latest conflict, the
global public opinion woke up to the reality of Palestinian sacrifice.
Western
governments all lined up to condemn Hamas, which could not be accepted, and
defend Israel’s right to self-defense, which must be challenged. It is a game
changer in both the course of the opposing narratives and how this world can
move forward.
For
decades, Israel’s exceptionalism has stumped all attempts to enforce what the
Western governments preached about a rule-based international world order that
fits all. With more than 5,000 civilians dead, including 2,000 children, the
demolitions of entire blocks of residential buildings, mosques, churches,
hospitals, schools, and others, in one of the most horrific massacres of
civilians in modern times; one must ask about the rule-based order and the
even-handedness of dealing with complex conflicts.
The
unipolar world order has had a dismal track record for over three decades. The
scenario is the same from the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, Syria,
and now Gaza. This is the time when a multipolar world order is needed.
Regional countries must have a say in the future of their own. Israel has been
an anomaly for decades. Its exceptionalism must end. It must comply with
international law like all others for a more just world. Western governments
are at odds with their people. The reverberations of this crisis will be felt
in the West for years to come.
Regardless
of what happens in Gaza, the world needs a new rule-based order, and the West
can no longer be trusted to have the final say on it.
Osama Al
Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
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