As Turkey approaches presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is fighting an uphill battle for survival.اضافة اعلان
He is behind in the polls, which can be attributed to three main reasons. First, Erdogan can no longer rely on his autocratic bargain predicated on delivering economic growth and upward mobility in return for political support or quiescence.
This served Erdogan well during most of his 20 years in power but is today irreparably broken. His stubborn and uninformed monetary policy has left the economy fragile and suffering from high inflation. A major erosion of purchasing power generating growing poverty and income disparity ensued in the last couple of years. But the bad news for Erdogan does not end with the economy.
Second, and perhaps most important, a traditionally weak and divided opposition is now united against him. An eclectic coalition of six parties, boosted with the support of a kingmaker Kurdish political movement, stands firmly behind Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the social-democratic Republican People’s Party and the candidate of what is known as the Nation Alliance. Kilicdaroglu is ahead of Erdogan in the polls, but his margin is slim.
Erdogan’s biggest advantage is his aura of political invincibility.
Finally, a third factor also works against Erdogan: the massive earthquake that shook Turkey on February 6 and killed more than 50,000 people. The disaster blatantly exposed theinefficiency and institutional decayunder Erdogan’s one-man rule. To the massive frustration of millions affected, the state was quasi-absent in the immediate aftermath of the disaster. Under the corrupt management of incompetent cronies, governmental agencies not only failed in search and rescue efforts but also mismanaged post-disaster relief.
Under normal circumstances these factors should translate into a major defeat for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Yet, elections are no longer free and fair in Erdogan’s Turkey. The government controls most of the media and the judicial system. In the absence of a strong margin of victory for the opposition, Erdogan may refuse to concede and take the result to the courts or worse — to the streets. Lacking charisma and oratory skills but with a strong reputation for integrity, Kilicdaroglu, 74, is the architect of the opposition’s newly acquired unity. But he has a losing streak against Erdogan.
In a two-round presidential election system that is bound to be tightly contested, whether Kilicdaroglu can win in the first round with more than 50 percent of the vote will end up depending on an unknown: the resurgent candidacy of Muharrem Ince, who hasemerged as a populist disrupterto the delight of Erdogan. Ince, who polls between 5 and 7 percent, attracts younger voters unhappy with both the AKP and the opposition.
Given the stakes, the whole country is on edge. A large part of the population is ready for change. But the same societal segment is anxious and incredulous about the prospect of Erdogan losing power. Like many observers in the West who lack confidence in Turkey’s democratic maturity, many in Turkey find it hard to believe that Erdogan will quietly disappear after losing an election. This brings us to a critically important, yet often misunderstood dimension of the drama about to unfold in Turkey: Erdogan’s biggest advantage is his aura of political invincibility.
Despite the illiberal nature of strongman rule, elections will continue to matter if Turkish people are not intimidated by Erdogan.
There seems to be a fatalistic resignation that Erdogan will find a way to stay in power and that a peaceful transition will prove elusive. The same alarmism sees this election as the last chance before Turkey slides into dictatorship. Such apprehension may serve to galvanize the opposition. But it is misplaced and ignores reality.
Erdogan is not as strong as he seems and Turkey is not an autocracy like Russia or China where polls are cosmetic. Despite the illiberal nature of strongman rule, elections will continue to matter if Turkish people are not intimidated by Erdogan. Even if he manages to win, the Turkish people and the opposition should remain vigilant, make sure the result is not manipulated before conceding, and prepare for the next fight instead of losing hope and faith in elections. Turkish democracy will outlast Erdogan even if he scores a pyrrhic short-term victory. Erdogan is bound to lose even if he wins.
Finally, let’s not forget that Erdogan lost local elections in all major cities in 2019 when the opposition was united and received Kurdish support. In Istanbul, a 16 million megapolis and microcosm of Turkey, Erdogan refused the result after a very narrow loss and bullied his way to a rerun.
He lost in a landslide.
And all this was before the economic meltdown and the hyperinflation of the last two years. Behind the facade of his massive presidential palace, Erdogan is a lonely man, detached from reality, and surrounded by sycophants. Yes, he has gained a well-deserved reputation as a Machiavellian survivor after 20 years in power. But centralization of decision-making, personalization of authority, and the hollowing out of state institutions have not made him stronger.
Behind the facade of his massive presidential palace, Erdogan is a lonely man, detached from reality, and surrounded by sycophants.
Instead, Turkey’s strongman is now at his weakest. If Erdogan wins on May 14, it will not be because of his capacity to govern or his populist policies raising the minimum wage or lowering the retirement age. It will be because too many Turks still believe he is invincible.
Omer Taspinar is a professor at the National Defense University in Washington and Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. Twitter: @otaspinar
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