Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine has sufficiently alarmed Finland and
Sweden for them to reverse decades-long policies and apply for immediate
membership of NATO. What appeared to be a no-brainer for the alliance has
quickly hit a roadblock in Turkey’s mercurial president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Citing political differences with the two countries, which he finds overly
indulgent of Turkish-Kurdish opposition groups and personalities, he declared
that Helsinki and Stockholm should not even bother sending representatives to
Ankara to discuss the issue. He would not assent to their membership.
اضافة اعلان
NATO guidelines require unanimous consent among
members when it comes to admitting new countries into the alliance. Turkey is
no ordinary NATO member. Its location, south of Russia, control of access to
the Black Sea, borders with Syria, Iraq, and Iran, and long Mediterranean coast
have all contributed to its importance to the alliance. Turkey has successfully
parlayed its strategic location into a bargaining position that often forces
its allies to back down and allow for its excesses at home and abroad to be
overlooked by its allies, especially Washington.
However, Erdogan of late has found himself
increasingly at odds with his traditional allies who are resisting his policies
and demands. Turkey’s intensifying authoritarianism under his one-man rule has
been subject to criticisms as his opponents are dispatched willy-nilly to long
jail terms following sham trials. Moreover, members of the Turkish government
have continuously blamed Washington for the July 2016 failed coup attempt – an
astonishing accusation that casts a shadow on Turkey’s most important
relationship.
However, the event that most shook Washington was
Turkey’s decision to purchase Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft missile system.
Erdogan insisted on the acquisition despite several warnings that he was
endangering Turkey’s securing of the alliance’s fifth generation combat
aircraft, the F-35. He simply ignored the many high-level American entreaties
believing perhaps that in the end, Washington as usual would concede. He was in
for a shock; not only was the F-35 sale canceled at tremendous cost, but the
plane’s manufacturing hubs in Turkey were dismantled and the US Congress
imposed sanctions on Ankara.
These are not the only issues rankling the bilateral
relationship. There is the US prosecution of a state-owned Turkish bank, Halk
Bank, for evading Iran sanctions. Erdogan has repeatedly asked that the White
House dismiss the case. He does not seem to understand that in the US, the
executive cannot interfere with the judicial branch unlike in Turkey where he
often micromanages legal cases and guides prosecutors and judges.
Erdogan’s objections may also have helped Russian leader Vladimir Putin, whose initial statements opposing NATO expansion were extremely severe. He toned down his own protestations when Erdogan emerged as the primary roadblock. This too will damage Ankara’s stand in Washington.
Erdogan must have also been exceedingly bitter at
the reception given to the Greek prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, in
Washington just when the Swedish and Finish NATO applications had become the
talk of the day. Mitsotakis was not only received at the White House by
President Joe Biden, he also addressed a joint session of the US Congress that
gave him many standing ovations. Erdogan has yet to be invited to Washington by
the Biden administration. Even if he were, he would never be asked to address
Congress due to the scale of anger at Ankara for not just the issues mentioned
above but also for its aggressive behavior in the Eastern Mediterranean, the
bullying of Greece and Cyprus, interventions against the Syrian Kurds who
aligned themselves with the US in the campaign against Daesh and many other
points of contention. Many in Congress and the administration believe that it
was the Syrian Kurds who finally helped defeat Daesh.
Erdogan’s objections may also have helped Russian
leader Vladimir Putin, whose initial statements opposing NATO expansion were
extremely severe. He toned down his own protestations when Erdogan emerged as
the primary roadblock. This too will damage Ankara’s stand in Washington. On
Thursday, Biden gave his full backing to Finland and Sweden in their
applications to join NATO.
Paradoxically, the Biden administration was ever so
carefully, congressional opposition notwithstanding, moving to approve the sale
of new F-16s to Turkey. With the cancellation of the F-35 program, Turkey
desperately needs to upgrade its current fleet of combat aircraft. Erdogan’s
outbursts on Sweden and Finland will probably further jeopardize the likelihood
of Congressional assent.
Erdogan tends to shoot first and ask questions much
later. After years of bitterly denouncing several Middle Eastern countries,
ranging from the UAE to Egypt and Israel, Erdogan has recently initiated a
hat-in-hand reconciliation effort with them. In so doing, he has indirectly
acknowledged that his diatribes against them did not achieve much and in the
end found himself isolated.
He clearly is
making the same mistake once again with the NATO expansion issue. Instead of
raising his objections and demands quietly behind closed doors, he has chosen
to go public. In so doing, he is eschewing his leverage while simultaneously
damaging Ankara’s image at a time when Turkey needs foreign investment,
tourists, and much other goodwill.
Sweden and Finland will eventually become NATO
members. The only question remaining to be determined is when. Turkey will find
that its demands will not be met. No “terrorists”, that is Turkish-Kurdish
political refugees, will be forcibly repatriated nor will Swedish financial aid
to Syrian Kurds come to an end, especially since the US is doing the same and
more.
Erdogan will find once more that his influence has
significantly diminished if for no other reason but his own behavior.
The writer is the Cohen professor of international
relations at Lehigh University in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, and an adjunct
senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council of Foreign Relations.
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