To the dismay of secular and Westernized segments of Turkish
society Erdogan once again proved his popularity. With 49.5 percent of the votes, he came very close to winning in
the first round. The next round is scheduled for May 28 and Erdogan is now the
clear favorite. It was not supposed to be that way. After 20 years in power,
most polls showed him behind and his aura of invincibility seemed to be finally
coming to a close.
اضافة اعلان
With real inflation at triple digits, 50,000 people killed
in an earthquake that exposed inept governance, and the opposition firmly
united, economic and political conditions seemed ripe for change. Many pundits
expected Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the candidate of the opposition, who ran a clean
campaign focused on bread and butter issues without engaging in identity
politics, to win with a comfortable margin. The euphoria in the opposition has
now been replaced by gloom and doom.
To be sure, all is not over. Kilicdaroglu received a career
high 44.9 percent in the first round. He still has a shot at registering an
upset but the odds are against him. Erdogan’s religious nationalist alliance
already secured a ruling majority in parliament. Kilicdaroglu has a losing
streak against Erdogan. The disappointment of the demoralized opposition is
therefore acute.
So what explains Erdogan’s enduring popularity? The short
answer is his ability to polarize the country. Erdogan knew that his only
chance of winning was to play the nationalism card. He did so by running a
negative campaign, which took scaremongering to new levels.
Erdogan knew that his only chance of winning was to play the nationalism card. He did so by running a negative campaign, which took scaremongering to new levels.
His job was made easier when a Kurdish party decided to support Kilicdaroglu instead
of fielding its own candidate. The Peoples’ Democracy Movement (HDP) is a
legitimate political party that rejects violence. Yet, in the eyes of Turkish
nationalists it is suspected of nurturing close ties with terrorism.
Erdogan’s disinformation campaign constantly showed Kurdish
militants championing Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy on big screens during his
political rallies in the Anatolian heartland. In addition to such polarizing
nationalism, Erdogan also played the religion card masterfully. He
consistently portrayed the secular opposition as pro-LGBT and
against traditional family values.
Elections are not free and fair in Turkey. Having
established a repressive regime and a strong hegemony over the media, Erdogan
had clear advantages over his opponent. He did not have to steal the vote. He
simply relied on his propaganda machine and his rock solid bond with the
conservative masses.
Kilicdaroglu also probably made a mistake by relying too
much on the economic downturn in formulating his campaign message.
Yes, the Turkish economy is in bad shape with rampant inflation. But there were
two problems with the assumption that the decline in purchasing power would
trump national security threats and identity politics.
First, the opposition failed to understand that the
manufactured national security threat — with warnings of Kurdish separatism
just around the corner — resonated with Erdogan’s nationalist religious base.
The Kurdish issue is probably the most polarizing problem in Turkish politics.
The majority of Turks are concerned about the US supporting Kurdish separatism
in Syria and in Turkey. Kilicdaroglu therefore took a calculated risk in
seeking the support of Kurdish nationalism in Turkey. This was a sign of
political courage and democratic maturity in the eyes of Turkish liberals such
as myself. But liberals are a microscopically small community in Turkey
compared to the crushing dominance of Turkish nationalism.
The second problem with emphasizing the economy over all
other issues was the absence of a great depression scale economic crisis in the
country. Rampant inflation is something Turks can endure as long as there is no
massive unemployment and a major financial crisis. The Turkish economy is not
in recession. Erdogan’s much-ridiculed economic model is based on economic growth at all cost. He was determined to avoid
high-interest rates because a recession caused by high-interest rates would
have probably ended Erdogan’s chances of re-election. Instead Erdogan went for
a high-inflation and high-growth model where he can still engage in economic
populism by raising wages, lowering the retirement age, and distributing
financial credit to cronies.
Should Erdogan win, the next five years will see even more political repression and populist nationalism in the country. Relations with the West are unlikely to improve unless the economy hits the wall and Erdogan needs to resort to an IMF rescue package.
Should Erdogan win, the next five years will see even more
political repression and populist nationalism in the country. Relations with
the West are unlikely to improve unless the economy hits the wall and Erdogan
needs to resort to an IMF rescue package. Despite all the challenges ahead, the
opposition should not give up the fight. Erdogan is not likely to run for
another term. He is tired and reportedly in poor health. Turkish democracy will
continue to have a pulse as long as elections will continue to determine
winners and losers.
Erdogan is once again proving very good at winning elections
even when the odds are against him. He doesn’t need to “steal” the vote.
The repressive political system, his populist nationalism, and the conservative
masses work in his favor even when the economy suffers from his mismanagement.
Omer Taspinar is a professor at the National
Defense University in Washington and Johns Hopkins University’s School of
Advanced International Studies. Twitter: @otaspinar
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