From the onset of the Israeli war on Gaza, now
entering its seventh week, Jordan has taken an exceptionally extreme stand in
denouncing the Israeli onslaught; His Majesty King Abdullah and Foreign
Minister Ayman Safadi openly accusing it of committing multiple war crimes, and
calling on the West to cease choosing how and when to apply international law.
اضافة اعلان
As the war intensified, Jordan doubled down
and raised the ante, declaring that it would not sign a crucial
water-for-energy deal with Israel and even reminding Israel that the 30
year-plus peace treaty between the two countries is a piece of paper that can
be set aside to collect dust!
Not only HM has been vociferous in his
condemnation of the war; warning it could get out of control and spiral into a
regional showdown, but even Her Majesty Queen Rania, who has no political role,
was equally vocal in pointing to the catastrophic humanitarian calamity endured
by civilians in Gaza, especially children.
HM visited a number of European capitals,
urging leaders to back an immediate ceasefire.
He also warned that any forced displacement of
Gazans would be considered a red line for Jordan. Prime Minister Bisher
Khasawneh went as far as to say that forced displacement of West Bank
Palestinians would be tantamount to a declaration of war. Such language was
never used before even as ties between the two countries had been getting from
bad to worse over the last decade, especially under Israeli Prime Minister
Benyamin Netanyahu.
Jordan recalled its ambassador in Tel Aviv and
allowed tens of thousands of Jordanians to protest openly, all across the
country, not only against Israel but also against the United States, which the
vast majority here sees as complicit in the war.
Aside from the embattled Palestinians, both in
Gaza and the West Bank, Jordan stands to suffer the most in the final outcome
of the war. The perception in Amman is that Israel is not out to destroy Hamas,
in retaliation for the October 7 attack, but to change the dynamics of the
Israel/Palestine conflict.
It is not clear how far Israel will go in its
current aggression and when it will be forced to stop. The belief in Amman is
that the Biden administration is too weak and politically vulnerable to order
Netanyahu and his war cabinet to stop the war. Meanwhile, the UK and Europe
have no real leverage on Israel.
Israel’s war on Gaza, which Amman does not
believe will destroy Hamas, will achieve one of these options; or all: One: creating
a buffer zone in northern Gaza; an effective wasteland, where Gaza’s 2.3
million will never return.
Aside from the embattled Palestinians, both in Gaza and the West Bank, Jordan stands to suffer the most in the final outcome of the war. The perception in Amman is that Israel is not out to destroy Hamas, in retaliation for the October 7 attack, but to change the dynamics of the Israel/Palestine conflict.
This has already been achieved through the
scorched earth policy that Israel has applied in most of Gaza City and the
adjacent refugee camps. Two: having destroyed the north, it can turn its
attention to the south, where more than 1.4 million Gazans have taken refuge.
It can either leave them there or start another bombing campaign to force them
into fleeing to Sinai. Even if it does nothing, while maintaining control of
how little aid is allowed to enter through the Rafah crossing, the humanitarian
situation will deteriorate in such a way that eventually millions will be
forced to head toward Egypt.
Regardless of how Egypt feels about this, it
cannot deal with a scenario where tens of thousands of helpless Gazans try to
reach the borders in search of safety and aid. So far, the Western inability to
influence Netanyahu and his war cabinet is making such a scenario a possibility
as winter sets in. UN relief agencies describe the situation in southern Gaza
as disastrous and yet only a few relief trucks are allowed to pass through the
Rafah border point on a daily basis.
Such a scenario raises all sorts of red flags
for Jordan. When few Jewish ultra-nationalist Zionists talked about Jordan
being the so-called “alternative Palestinian homeland”, few took them
seriously. Egypt had just signed a peace treaty with Israel and more than a
decade later, both the PLO and Jordan reached separate peace agreements with
Israel. The two-state solution had become the acceptable international formula
to end decades of conflict.
But over the years, the extremists in Israel
made a slow move from the periphery of Israeli politics to the center. Illegal
Jewish settlements increased by tenfold. The peace process was derailed and
Netanyahu did everything he could to weaken and sideline the Palestinian
Authority (PA) while propping up Hamas, which by now was in control of Gaza.
While the 7 October Hamas attack was a
watershed moment, it came at a point when Netanyahu’s Far Right government was
doing its best to test Jordan’s vulnerable peace treaty, especially where the
future of the West Bank, and East Jerusalem, is concerned.
Now, Jordan finds itself in a difficult
position. If Israel does carry out a plan to displace Palestinians in Gaza,
then a precedent would have been committed. What’s next? The West Bank is
already witnessing daily Israeli raids against refugee camps in Jenin, Nablus
and others. Area C, making up 60 percent of the West Bank where the PA has no
say or control, is being cleared of the last few Palestinian communities. Armed
settlers are on a rampage. The Israeli military is destroying the
infrastructure of Palestinian towns and camps.
Jordan cannot allow the forced displacement of
Palestinians from the West Bank. That presents a clear and direct threat to its
existence. It is already hosting the largest number of Palestine refugees. Any
influx of Palestinians into Jordan would threaten the very foundations of the
Hashemite kingdom.
Under Netanyahu, Israel has pushed to cement
the identity of the state as an exclusive Jewish homeland, even when such a
move brought in the label of apartheid, both inside the 1948 borders and
beyond. But Israel faces a demographic and existential challenge. Whether it is
happening already, or will be in a few years, non-Jews between the Jordan River
and the Mediterranean will outnumber the Jews. Israel could build as many
settlements, and kill as many Palestinians, but it was bound to lose the
demographic war. Thus, the ultimate solution, perpetrated by the Far Right, is
forced transfer.
Jordan has come to acknowledge such a reality
and that it stands to pay for it alongside Egypt. A forced transfer scenario
must be considered since the US has no real leverage to apply to Netanyahu.
This explains Jordan’s willingness to put its peace treaty with Israel on the
line. But this came when Jordan had become almost dependent on Israel for water
and natural gas. It is not easy to find alternatives to both.
No one really knows how far will King Abdullah
go in challenging Israel’s war in Gaza and in displeasing his US and European
allies. From what has come out so far,
the king is willing to go as far as it is possible to derail Israel’s sinister
plans in Gaza and beyond.
Under Netanyahu, Israel has pushed to cement the identity of the state as an exclusive Jewish homeland, even when such a move brought in the label of apartheid, both inside the 1948 borders and beyond. But Israel faces a demographic and existential challenge. Whether it is happening already, or will be in a few years, non-Jews between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean will outnumber the Jews. Israel could build as many settlements, and kill as many Palestinians, but it was bound to lose the demographic war. Thus, the ultimate solution, perpetrated by the Far Right, is forced transfer.
Jordan is betting on the possibility that
Israel will not be allowed to pursue the current bloodbath in Gaza any further.
But that is a risk. Western leaders do not seem to have the tools, or the will,
to challenge Netanyahu at this time. Biden is running for re-election and his
Republican opponents are racing to pledge blind support for Israel’s war in
Gaza.
For Jordan, all options look difficult. Jordan
may go as far as abrogating or suspending its peace treaty with Israel, but
that will come at a hefty cost; its strategic ties to the US notwithstanding.
At the same time, it cannot allow a Gaza scenario to be repeated in the West
Bank. It is a dangerous tight-rope walk for Jordan from now on.
Osama Al
Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
Disclaimer:
Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Jordan News' point of view.
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