Last night Gaza
went dark after Israel destroyed telecommunications
(data and mobile) creating fear of those in Khan Younis and Gaza City of being
shelled in the dark, without being able to call loved ones or tell their story
online. It caused worries that this was the long awaited and feared land
invasion, which would result in house-to-house fighting, snipers, and massive
casualties. As I wrote in a
previous piece, Israel will most likely not launch a full
scale land invasion for a variety of reasons. Instead it will raze a security
region, a buffer zone, in North Gaza and will launch limited land incursions
and ops, like last night.
اضافة اعلان
Who is against the land invasion, why and who are the main
players?
Three Things You Should Know:Arab States:
Since the beginning of Israel’s war on Gaza, Arab states
have come out strongly to condemn Israeli war crimes - which are well
documented. As well, states like
Egypt,
Saudi Arabia, and especially Jordan have warned of the
regional repercussions of a land invasion of Gaza. Jordanian Foreign Minister
Ayman Safadi has
repeatedly sounded the alarm of growing anger Arab
societies are experiencing - not only of the massive civilian casualties in
Gaza, the destruction of churches, mosques, schools, and hospitals -
But especially over the international response, particularly
that of the US. It would perhaps be easier if the international community
ignored us, but to see these images on the news, and online, and then actively
hear US officials like UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield (
vetoed a ceasefire proposal but suggested a
‘humanitarian pause’ with language defending Israel) celebrities like
Sarah Silverman (
defending cutting water to civilians), or spokespeople
like John Kirby (
pro-Palestine protests at University are ‘definition of
unacceptable’ and ‘a ceasefire only helps Hamas’) provide talking points to
justify these war crimes. It’s heartbreaking. That’s it. After the grief for
Gaza, Arab societies had their hearts broken by the US and Europe and now they
see the region itself could be broken. Arab states have to walk a tightrope
between the growing domestic discontent in their own countries with Western
demands and alliances. It may not be possible. Arab leaders find themselves in
increasingly difficult geopolitical and domestic quandaries. A ground invasion,
especially if supported by US money, weapons, advisors, and rhetoric, could be
too much and activate armed groups and cells throughout the region. There
could be long-term societal resentment against the US, and collapse of faith in
Western institutions.
Who might get involved?A land invasion will definitely be met, and already has been in
a limited capacity, by non-state actors across the region - US assets and bases
are targeted in Iraq, Houthi drones struck Egypt, and Hezbollah still engages
and distracts Israel at the northern border. While Hezbollah is yet to launch a
serious attack, their engagement must be considered as a warning of what can
come if the land invasion happens. Syria and Iraq will play a role in this
unfolding regional dynamic -
The PMF, especially The Nujaba Movement and Kata’ib
Hezbolla. This does not include ‘lone-wolf attacks’ such as the ones that
happened with the killings of tourists in Egypt or Belgium.
How might they get involved?Lebanese Hezbollah, as mentioned above, is using limited strikes
to engage Israel on its northern border. It is unlikely that Hezbollah would
break the rules of engagement with an incursion, but it could increase its
missile strikes, or target interests inside Lebanon. The active players who
pose a much larger threat are Kata’ib Hezbollah, the Nujaba movement, and
Asai’b Ahil Al Haq - all in Iraq. These groups are already targeting US bases
and interests in the region, especially in Iraq and Eastern Syria. These groups
are also the ones demonstrating and blocking shipments of oil from Iraq to
Jordan. A possible escalation might result in these groups moving their
operation from Iraq and Syria to the Golan Heights and opening a new front
there.
It is also worth noting that the Iraqi government
awarded the Popular Movement Front (PMF) vast swaths
of land on the borders of Jordan and Saudi Arabia, to be used in creating an
independent economic engine for the PMF. Following the footsteps of the IRGC,
it can now be used as an operation base to target US interests and allies in
Saudi and Jordan. The Houthis have also fulfilled their vow of
joining the conflict. According to
reports, the Houthis are well equipped with military
grade drones that they can use for launching attacks against Israel. So far,
two drones exploded over Egyptian villages. While the reports did not identify
the type of weapons used, previous Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco and a
recent UK seizure of a Houthi shipment both indicate Delta
Design Drones.
My Take:
There is no surprise that Gaza is an open-air prison, Israel has
evaded international consequences for violence against civilians, or that the
US supports Israel. What was a surprise was how blatantly Israel shuns
international law, such as cutting water to communities and targeting a church
sheltering civilians, only to be given political cover by the US whether at the
UN or in the press room. The rage at protests is then aimed not just at Israel
but also at its Western backers and apologists. This creates a threat of a West
vs. Arabs dynamic. Our generation already survived this public perception with
the 2003 US invasion of Iraq.
As much as protestors blame the US, or US politicians blame
Iran, the truth is, everything now depends on Israel. Israel decides to invade
Gaza and face thousands of Hamas fighters and put civilians in the way, or to
find other means of securing the hostages and containing Hamas.
If there is a ground invasion, it plays into the Iranian
objective of thriving on chaos. As an agent of chaos, Iran can reposition
itself as a key player in the region. It looks for fissures like Gaza,
and exploits them. It also uses it for PR and information campaigns. Arab
public sentiment that was anti-Iran and anti-Hezbollah is seeing a shift. By
making Iran a mastermind, by making Iranian proxies ‘the resistance’ it creates
a mood where Iran can expand its narrative to areas that were resistant to it before.
It places itself as the voice or protectors of Gaza. Of course, this isn’t
true. Many hoped for the US and EU to be the voice of human rights and
international law - to be protectors - but this was a disappointment. But this
does not mean that to defend Gaza means buying into Iran’s narrative. (Iran was
clear in its plan of
expelling all US troops in the middle east, announced
in the wake of Suleimani’s assassination).
Where does this leave Jordan? Jordan is a hub for dialogue and
the King a strong voice for Palestinian protection, international law,
ceasefire, and humanitarian support. His Majesty has given tough rhetoric in his
opening of Parliament,
the press conference in Germany, or
the summit in Cairo. Her Majesty Queen Rania in a CNN interview and Safadi in multiple venues have echoed these
sentiments. But US allies like Jordan, who focus on peace, dialogue, and a
two-state solution are in the crossfire both as an American ally and a host to
American interests and bases. Jordan, for example, has already been named by
Iraqi militias in a
BBC interview as a legitimate target. Any Arab state
which has close relations to the US or was engaged in recognition efforts with
Israel is under threat if a land invasion occurs. A regional expansion of the
conflict benefits none of them.
The only states that benefit from a
ground invasion and subsequent expansion of the conflict are Israel and Iran.
Katrina Sammour was first published on Full Spectrum Jordan, a weekly newsletter on SubStack.
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