In an
interview recently on Al-Mamlaka, US General Mark A.
Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stated that US forces have a
limited presence in Syria and are there to fight Daesh. So, is Daesh back? How
do we know? And is this a threat to Jordan?
اضافة اعلان
In Syria, the resurgence of Daesh's Wilayat Houran (the name
of the South Syria branch of Daesh) has been quietly unfolding in the south.
Since the beginning of 2022, this extremist group has been methodically
enhancing its presence, particularly in areas surrounding Dera’a, Badiyat
As-Suwaida, and Syrian Badia. This rebuilding has remained quiet for several
reasons, largely due to communications. Global media attention has shifted away
from stories on Syria, Daesh, and extremism. Even Milley’s interview was
covered on
European media because of his comments on Ukraine, not on the Middle
East. Also, Daesh has changed its media strategy and is no longer announcing
its actions with videos and social media, but subtly acting without
fanfare. It refrains from publicly
announcing or claiming responsibility for its operations in the south, avoiding
unwanted attention and troop reinforcements in the region. This clandestine
strategy allows it to maintain its operational tempo while evading the
spotlight. For Daesh, the media strategy was always part of their overall
strategy.
Three things you should know
A Short History of Daesh in South SyriaWhile Daesh had a very strong presence in north, northeast,
and central Syria it never really expanded the same way in the south of Syria.
Its expansion and presence in the south happened gradually through local
fighting groups that swore allegiance - primarily the two main groups of
Shuhada’a Al Yarmouk and
Islamic Muthanna Movement, merging later with other Islamic
groups and creating what would be known as the
Khalid Bin Al Walid Army (Jaysh
Khalid Bin Al Walid). The existence of these groups was marred with internal
divisions and in-fighting with other Islamic groups, most
notably Nusra Front,
affiliated with Al-Qaeda, as well as the rebel
Free Army. When the Russian
backed disarmament was underway, most areas were back under the control of the
Syrian regime forces, with most of the fighters agreeing to leave to Northern
areas. The last area and group to refuse to negotiate or agree on the
disarmament deal was the Khalid Bin Al Walid Brigade - eventually the Syrian
regime forces were able to expel and eradicate them from the south. However, we now know that from 2018 until
recently the group merely kept a low profile and camouflaged its presence in
the violent chaos in the Syrian South.
What is Happening Now:
Wilayat Haroun has
shown itself capable of carrying out complex operations – especially when
targeting military units. Overall, it targets military units, local armed
groups and any figurehead deemed a “collaborator” with the regime. However, it
is still focused on regrouping and rebuilding, especially militarily, and
especially in the south. It is still in ‘startup’ mode and therefore unstable,
but working on its organizational infrastructure. A strong structure is
necessary not only for attacks but because it is facing a lot of major players
– Russia, Assad regime forces, Iran backed militias, local armed groups, and
tribal forces. Add to this also the US forces Killey is referencing in his
Al-Mamlaka interview.
The group's reliance on "safe houses" scattered
throughout the south serves as a foundation for their activities. These safe
houses function as hubs for operations as well as housing
"Muhajereen" fighters (those who migrate or immigrate to live and
fight within the Islamic State). The network of decentralized, secret safe
houses peppered throughout the south make any attempted analysis or evaluation
of the threat they pose much more complex.
The group has also displayed self-reliance in financing its
operations. It depends on the spoils of its activities, such as looting from
military troops, armed groups, ransoms, and donations or forced “donations”
from local residents. These gains allow them a degree of independence and
unpredictability.
There is no evidence connecting Wilayet Houran to any drug
trafficking in the south, which is primarily monopolized by Iran-backed groups
and armed forces tied to the Assad regime. There is also not evidence so far of
outside funding.
Wilayet Houran is still antagonistic towards other Islamist
groups, and views the presence of HTS in the south very suspiciously, believing
it is there for fighting them and not the regime.
How Can It Impact Jordan?
Jordan views the resurgence of Wilayat Houran as a grave
threat. The possibility of fighters crossing the border and launching attacks
within Jordan drives constant attention and resources from Jordan. This adds
additional danger to the border which is already facing an onslaught of
Captagon and Crystal meth smuggling in goods, armed attempts, and even drones. While no evidence shows a tie to drug
smuggling, how long until attempted weapons smuggling or trafficking of
fighters becomes an issue?
While there is no concrete evidence of Jordanian nationals
within the group's ranks in the south of Syria, recruitment efforts in Jordan
remain a concern, driven by high youth unemployment and the allure of extremist
ideologies. Jordanian authorities have noted spikes in recruitment potential,
especially during times of increased tensions in Palestine and instances of perceived
injustice, such as the burning of the Quran in Sweden. This underscores the
group's capacity to exploit disenfranchisement and anger among disaffected
youth.
Again, a lot is known by tracking the communication
strategy. Daesh’s recruitment strategy involves direct grooming through Jihadi
forum and still rely on their old operational method - attacks through
inspiration rather communication.
For Jordan, this is an additional threat at the border, a
possible destabilizer of the region, a violent force which could target Jordan
itself, and a dangerous potential recruiter of Jordanian youth who may be
susceptible to their methods.
My Take
Jordan realized a lot of this back in 2014 when we saw armed
groups in South Syria. For years, Jordan put almost 70 percent of its military
resources on the border with Syria because of armed groups and extremism.
Jordan is already dealing with the massive smuggling attempts at the border,
and still hosting hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees, even in the face of
declining international support for those same refugees. Jordan is exhausted
but still carrying on. Internal issues of the economy and new reform efforts
also require attention, especially since the vulnerable groups that are the
targets of the reforms could also be the target of Daesh recruiting.
This is not over. Daesh is coming back and Jordan remains a
leader and main partner in fighting it.
For many of us who focus on Syria and have followed this for
a decade, this is not a rerun but a dangerous reboot. The region is different,
the world’s attention is elsewhere, both US and Russian forces have diminished.
The issue of drug smuggling at the border introduces more groups and more arms
into an already chaotic area.
While Daesh might be weaker in its organizational structure
its recruitment efforts are well alive and still operates on attacks by
inspiration rather than communication, it will only be a matter of time - if we
let the situation in the Syrian South go unnoticed and not dealt with then we
might see a resurgence of a stronger more organized and operationally capable
group.
The latest developments and protests, especially those
sparked in Suweida are clear signs that the Assad regime can no longer skate by
without a real political solution. This political solution would bring
different stakeholders to power, work on economic development, provide
services, and of course, provide security for all Syrian citizens, not just
those blessed by the Assad regime.
Chaos in South Syria does not only mean that Daesh can
survive in the violent chaos, but, as we have seen before in South Syria, this
can reintroduce hostile Iranian and Iranian-affiliated groups to the border of
Jordan.
As Daesh rises in the area, Jordan also returns as a voice
of leadership. But it requires the tools to fight as well as the attention and
support of other nations to focus strategy on stabilization and order.
Katrina Sammour was first published on Full Spectrum Jordan, a weekly newsletter on SubStack.
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