The upcoming parliamentary elections should
happen on time and not be delayed. The arguments for delaying are weak, and the
consequences for delay are detrimental.
اضافة اعلان
Rumors abound on how the upcoming
parliamentary elections may be
delayed due
to the tragedy of Gaza, the rise of certain parties, the lack of preparedness
of parties, or any number of reasons. Talk to a party leader or a politico or
one of these ‘election experts,’ and they will say the elections may be pushed
for some time. But there is not a government quote saying this is going to
happen.
Reporting on
speculation is
not useful, but the idea of delaying elections should be quashed unless force
majeure or a future crisis forces it.
Three things you should know:
A crisis within a crisis:Voter turnout in Jordan has usually been low.
In the
last parliamentary
election, it was 29.9%, and this was after keeping the polls open two hours
longer in a final push to raise turnout.
Research shows
low voter intention, lack of knowledge about elections, and extremely low trust
in Parliament and (previously) political parties. Experience with
vote-buying by
certain candidates also weakens trust in the electoral process.
In addition to the lack of trust in elections,
youth are politically apathetic overall. Frustrated with a system where they
feel they have no voice, Jordanian youth operate outside of the “system.” They
found ‘
governance by other means’ as I have written before. This skepticism of
representation is even darker when looking at international institutions as
youth now face the weakness of the UN, the silence of the international
community, and the support for Israel's actions by partners like Germany. So,
youth avoid around the domestic system and feel betrayed by the global system.
Research shows how populism and international
engagement are globally
mutually exclusive. As public disillusionment about the objectivity of the global
system combines with the trust deficit in domestic institutions like parliament
or the judiciary - then we have an open opportunity for the rise of populism.
Jordan would not be unique. We see the rise of populism throughout Europe and
in parts of Asia and Latin America (and everywhere online). For Jordan, this
could be angry expats on Facebook
spreading nationalist
populism, malign misinformation, or those
blaming years-long
issues like Captagon on Gaza in order to advance divisive narratives.
Now, as Jordan is witnessing an erosion of
trust not only in domestic institutions but in the international order, it
should expect a rise in populism. Toxic populism would hinder our journey
towards an inclusive, representative, and prosperous Jordan. This means our own
national security is intertwined with political space, political parties, and
elections.
The state of parties:
Before October, we had 29 registered parties,
some of which had no experience, few resources, and no communication skills.
After October, 27 of those 29 parties were engaged in protests and Gaza
solidarity campaigns. These parties had newfound audiences, allies, social
media skills, media coverage, and followers.
One result is that the parties are not being
shaped by gradual public engagement and internal organizational building. They
are competing in the heat of street politics and intense social media presence.
Currently, slogans work better than platforms, loud voices gather more
attention than experienced voices, and clever online posts are more effective
than informed ones.
For the upcoming elections, we could see more
protest parties instead of representative parties. We could see more demands of
what the government should do, instead of demands of what the people need. It
is an important nuance.
Campaigns can be the trial that lets the
public choose if the protest rhetoric or the representative rhetoric should get
into Parliament. There is a high chance we get both. In that case, the four
years of Parliament become the trial for the parties. Can they deliver
anything? Do they engage the public? Or will they always rely on protest
rhetoric and never hold themselves accountable for results.
Parliament will still be about policy,
bureaucracy, alliances, and governing. Let all the parties compete while the
public is engaged. Let them argue how they will successfully navigate the
bureaucracy and policymaking. Let them show how they can hold the government to
account. Let them show how they understand the challenges facing the average
Jordanian.
The parties have recently grown in protest.
Let them now prepare for the trial of the campaign and the work of government.
And let them do it on time while the public is engaged, instead of delaying and
risk repeating the waltz of reforms.
The Reform Waltz:
Jordan has a long history of attempted reforms
- especially the election law and youth initiatives. All of these steps
ultimately result in a circular return to where we were - a waltz. All of these
changes have created a sense of exasperation and then apathy. The political
modernizations were long in the making. Stemming from previous
writings by
His Majesty, put into a 92-person
committee headed
by former PM Samir Al-Rifai, and
published in
a 200-page booklet. Since then there have been legal changes, institutional
changes, and civic education. Parties have been formed, reformed, merged, and
developed. While some were skeptical of another reform cycle in Jordan, the
high political will and immediate implementation wiped away this cynicism - so
far.
A postponed election after all this work will
only mean increased distrust in institutions and government overall. While some
state officials might blame consistent low turnout or an increasingly apathetic
youth - the reality is much more dire and consequential to Jordan’s future.
There are multiple studies on the implications of distrust in government;
some studies have found that apathy and cynical attitudes easily spill over
into uncontrolled behavior (civil disobedience, protest, corruption, and
overall apathy). In Jordan, we already see signs of this spillover.
Research shows
youth believe the most effective ways to influence the government are protest,
civil disobedience, and social media activism - not voting and formal politics.
Additionally, polling shows youth growing more socially conservative and
distrustful of government institutions than previous generations.
This electoral introduction of the political
modernizations determines if this is a forward movement of including youth in
our government or just another step in the waltz.
My Take:
Jordan is on the frontline of many regional
and international crises. Regional unrest affects Jordan directly, as we see
now with the war on Gaza, and as we have seen with Syria, which ushered in
Iranian expansion, resulting in a rise of armed and violent narco-trafficking
groups on our borders. Cyber threats and climate change are also endangering
our domestic stability and security. These myriad threats make it absolutely
obvious that we must pour our resources and focus on solidifying our domestic
front. Domestic solidarity and engagement create a defense.
Two generations of Jordanians have been “left
behind” by globalization. Jordanian youth have arguably been largely left out
economically of a hyper-globalized world. Inequality has increased. Water
scarcity increases. Jordanians are now witnessing a shifting global order, (due
to AI, climate, Gaza, Ukraine, partisan global media) - a world order that used
to ignore them they now perceive as working “against them” (especially on
Gaza). They feel increasingly pushed further away from international institutions
(this is not unique to Jordan). Within this position of apathy towards domestic
politics, we blend distrust and disdain for global engagement and we get a
youth populace that is apathetic, resentful, defensive, and pessimistic about
their futures.
Without genuine inclusion in political
representation, without youth engagement, without rebuilding trust, we risk
losing these “left behind” generations to populist, malign, and unfriendly
neighboring or international players.
Making political parties, more specifically
party platforms and visions, the breathing space for disengaged and angry youth
is the first step. But the parties are not advocacy groups or CSOs. They need a
campaign (for outreach) and elected seats (for inclusion).
Now would be a unique moment to bring our
youth back. Youth are currently actively following events, out in the street,
participating in consumer actions like boycotts, allied with political groups
(even if just on this one issue). It happens to be the same moment we have
substantively changed our systems to be more inclusive and more representative.
It could be a great match, and such an alignment of opportunities may not come
again soon. A strategically timed election could catch this momentum and integrate
into a prolonged campaign period where parties present their visions for Jordan
and compete (or ally in coalitions).
Katrina Sammour was first published on Full Spectrum Jordan, a weekly newsletter on SubStack.
Disclaimer:
Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Jordan News' point of view.
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