As the Jordanian- Syrian diplomatic reopening unfolds, both
political and security relations are growing – especially border security
cooperation. However, one key aspect that has received little to no attention
is water agreement. This issue may be dwarfed next to the
immediate security threats Jordan faces on its border with Syria, but water scarcity and climate
change are an integral part to maintaining national security. Other than a
brief headline
announcing the re-activation of the water agreement between the
two countries that was signed in 1987, nothing else has been done or written.
اضافة اعلان
4 things you should know:
1. History of Syrian-Jordanian water agreementsWhile Syria and Jordan may have had a bumpy relationship
while the region was inflamed with conflict in the 1960s, trade and
cross-border cooperation was always a pillar of relations – including water
sharing. One of the first agreements to try to regulate and develop Jordan
River water resources was
the Johnston plan of 1955. This plan would have
entitled Jordan to 55% of the water share, Israel to 26%, and 9% for Syria and
Lebanon. However this agreement was never finalized or signed. It was rejected
by the Arab League for political reasons and was ultimately killed by Israel’s
raid across Tiberius in December 1955.
This has become a common theme for Jordan. Levels of the flow to the lower Jordan River have dropped by 90 percent, largely due to Israel’s capture of water. Jordan’s largest freshwater surface is shared with Syria, who captures most of the rainfall water in its 42 dams.
Each country then signed its own
bilateral water agreements. In the first water agreement Jordan and Syria
signed, water shares were not specified, and a conflict resolution mechanism
was not identified. The agreement only outlined management of the Yarmouk river
(a tributary of the Jordan river), and construction of dams. In 1987, Jordan
and Syria were back at the negotiation table, revising the original agreement
and detailing dam building. This revision of the original 1953 document
authorized the construction of the Al Wehda dam (Maqaran dam) on the
Syrian-Jordanian border. Under the agreement, Jordan had to finance the
construction and ongoing maintenance costs of the dam. Jordan signed an
agreement without leverage to resolve conflicts, bearing the financial burden,
and in a less than fraternal relationship with Damascus.
2. Impact of Syrian conflict on Jordan’s water resources
In the years
between 2012-2016, Jordan welcomed
approximately 1.4 million refugees – equal to almost 12% of Jordan’s population
at the time – who brought significant water needs with them. Jordan’s Ministry
of Water and Irrigation stated that by 2014, Jordan’s water usage had increased
20%, reaching levels they had not planned until 2021, noting that the
government discarded their water strategy in favor of ‘emergency planning’ that
gets renewed every summer. The Syrian conflict also brought the disappearance
of water stability along the Yarmouk. Massive sections of water infrastructure
were damaged in the conflict. Exact information and research is non-existent
due to the fact that research was almost impossible to conduct, and
infrastructure repair in the near future is unlikely. But satellite imagery
shows a 3.5 fold increase in water flow to Jordan. This is due to
conflict-related
changes in land use and irrigation in Syria, not due to
official Syrian policy. Southern Syria was largely controlled by armed rebel
groups and no Syrian regime institutions were allowed to operate in the area.
This also meant no official institutional know-how or tools to gather and save
water from dams built across the Yarmouk basin. With all the other costs of the
conflict, it is specious to claim the downstream water flow as a benefit.
3. Jordan’s water
loss:
Water loss and
theft are pressing challenges in Jordan,
exacerbating the country's water scarcity issues. The inadequate infrastructure
and aging water networks contribute to significant water loss throughout the
distribution system. It is estimated that almost 50% of the water supply is
lost due to leaking pipes, underbilling, water theft, and inaccurate meter
readings. This loss not only depletes valuable water resources but also puts
additional strain on the already limited water supply, affecting both domestic
and agricultural sectors. Jordan's efforts to regulate water use and implement
water conservation measures are hindered by the urgent need for infrastructure
upgrades and repairs to reduce water loss and improve efficiency.
In addition to
infrastructure challenges, water theft is a significant concern in Jordan.
Illegal tapping into water networks, unauthorized connections, and unauthorized
drilling of wells contribute to the loss of water resources. These activities
not only disrupt the equitable distribution of water but also exacerbate water
scarcity for the general population. The government faces the challenge of
combating water theft while ensuring access to water for all citizens. Stricter
enforcement measures, public awareness campaigns, and investment in advanced
monitoring technologies are crucial for addressing water theft and preserving
the limited water resources in Jordan.
4. Jordan’s water scarcity fact sheet:
Jordan's renewable water resources amount to only 100 cubic
meters per person annually, well below the UN-defined threshold for severe
water scarcity (500 cubic meters per person annually).In April 2020 PNAS
(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of
America)
published the a study conducted
by 17 scholars and researchers that Jordan will possibly reach destabilizing
levels of water scarcity with 90% of the country’s low income population
expected to deal with the severe water insecurity.
This has become a common theme for Jordan. Levels of the flow to the lower Jordan River have dropped by 90 percent, largely due to Israel’s capture of water. Jordan’s largest freshwater surface is shared with Syria, who captures most of the rainfall water in its 42 dams.
It is projected that by the
year 2100 the overwhelming majority of
Jordanian households will be receiving less than 40 liters per person
per day.
My Take:
Jordan usually lacked leverage against more powerful
neighbors to secure a sufficient share of resources, agreements were often
political rather than practical, and regional conflicts frequently disrupted
water availability and stability. This
has become a common theme for Jordan. Levels of the flow to the lower Jordan
River have dropped by 90%, largely due to Israel’s capture of water. Jordan’s
largest freshwater surface is shared with Syria, who captures most of the
rainfall water in its 42 dams. Scarce fresh water resources, population growth,
outdated treaties with uncooperative neighbors, and ever growing
hydro-political competitions amid worldwide climate change leave Jordan with
few options. Measures taken by the government to regulate water use, such as
the desalination projects that are undergoing in Aqaba and the government’s
attempts to control underground wells
are all minor steps that can keep Jordan afloat for the next few years
but not long term.
It is important to note that Syria also grapples with its
own bleak water reality. Northern and Northeast Syria acutely suffers from
water scarcity and, as a result, food insecurity.
3 lakes in Syria have dried
up during the years of the conflict. The region is heavily dependent on the
Euphrates River, which also provides electricity through three hydroelectric
dams. These dams are largely unworkable due to critically low levels of water.
Additionally,
weaponization of water, a tactic used at historically
unprecedented levels in the Syrian conflict, was carried out by various
fighting sects. From the first years of the Syrian conflict, water and water
infrastructure was targeted and captured. In 2019 alone, a
United Nations investigation documented and verified 46 attacks on water facilities in Syria.
With the addition of ongoing security problems, Syria is even more dependent on
the water sources it can control, which may include the Yarmouk – also a
desperately needed source for Jordan. If that wasn’t enough, Syria has to deal
with a strong and
aggressive Turkish presence and subsequent theft of water.
(Turkey’s role in water theft in Syria deserves its own newsletter).
For both Syria and Jordan, an effective agreement is
required in order to ease water scarcity, though the Yarmouk alone is not
sufficient to address the issue in both states. For Syria, any secured
agreement is an additional step towards regime legitimacy in the region. For
Jordan, easing the water crises bolsters its social contract in the face of
decreased agricultural output and increased citizen distrust in state
institutions.
The Yarmouk agreement is a
precautionary lesson against an
ambiguous agreement where rights in water shares are not clearly defined,
conflict resolution methods are not created and joint coordination and research
facilities are lacking. A detailed, robust, agreement is a step forward in
addressing regional climate change, bringing stability to a contentious border,
and contributing to desperately needed water sources.
Katrina Sammour was first published on Full Spectrum Jordan, a weekly newsletter on SubStack.
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