While the war in Ukraine continues to rage, some are already looking ahead to
what will happen when the guns fall silent and the construction work begins. In
July, Ukraine’s prime minister estimated that rebuilding the country’s
devastated cities, towns, and infrastructure would cost $750 billion. Amid the
destruction has come opportunity for others, and Turkey is the frontrunner to
eventually become one of the big financial winners of the conflict, especially
if it manages to preserve good ties with both Moscow and Kyiv.
Since Russia launched its so-called special military
operation in Ukraine, Turkey has attempted to portray itself as a mediator in
the conflict. As a result of the Turkey-brokered talks in Istanbul in March,
Russia withdrew its troops from around Kyiv and the northeastern regions of
Chernihiv and Sumy. In July in Istanbul, representatives of Russia, Ukraine,
and Turkey signed a grain deal that allowed Ukraine to stabilize its budget by
exporting millions of tons of cereal via the Black Sea. The agreement also had
a positive impact on the Turkish economy, given that Ankara is now able to buy
grain from Ukraine and Russia at lower prices.
Turkey now aims to improve its positions in the
Black Sea region. According to a memorandum of understanding signed by Turkish
Trade Minister Mehmet Mus and Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr
Kubrakov in Lviv on August 18, Turkey will play an important role in the
reconstruction of the country. Turkish companies are expected to rebuild the
bridge in the village of Romanivka that connects Bucha and Irpin with Kyiv.
Such action could send a powerful and symbolic message: If the reconstruction
takes place before the war officially ends, or at least before Moscow and Kyiv
sign a ceasefire agreement, it would be a clear sign that Russia has given up
plans to seize the Ukrainian capital.
Moreover, if the Turkish company Baykar is really
building a drone factory in Ukraine, as Ukrainian ambassador to Turkey Vasyl
Bodnar suggests, it is yet another indication that Ankara knows something that
the rest of the world does not. It is improbable that Turkey would start such
an expensive project if it had not received guarantees from Moscow that the
plant would not be a target for the Russian military.
Ankara is quite aware that its military cooperation
with Ukraine will not affect relations with the Kremlin. The very fact that
Russia has not attempted to prevent Turkey from selling Bayraktar drones to Ukraine
perfectly illustrates that Ankara has strong leverage over Moscow. Isolated
from the West, Russia is using Turkey as a transit hub, and is actively
increasing its economic cooperation with Ankara. Under the current geopolitical
circumstances, the Kremlin will have to turn a blind eye to almost every
Turkish action in Ukraine.
It is no secret that Turkey sees Crimea — a region
under Russian control, although internationally still recognized as part of
Ukraine — as its own zone of influence. Historically, the disputed peninsula
spent longer as a protectorate of the Ottoman Empire than part of the Russian
Empire or Soviet Union. It is, therefore, not surprising that Ankara aims to
position itself as a patron of the Crimean Tatars — the ethnic group indigenous
to the peninsula.
Turkish authorities have recently started issuing
long-term residence permits to Crimean Tatars, who are Turkic-speaking Muslims.
According to Turkish laws, only foreigners who have been living in the country
continuously for eight years can obtain a long-term residence permit. However,
Meskhetian Turks, Uighurs, ethnic Turks from Bulgaria and Greece, and now the
Crimean Tatars are exempt from this. Ankara is probably aiming to integrate the
Crimean Tatars into Turkish society, but at the same time, Turkey is looking to
increase its influence among the Crimean Tatars still living in Crimea.
Isolated from the West, Russia is using Turkey as a transit hub, and is actively increasing its economic cooperation with Ankara. Under the current geopolitical circumstances, the Kremlin will have to turn a blind eye to almost every Turkish action in Ukraine.
Some Crimean Tatar political analysts, however,
argue that, at this point, the Turkish presence in Crimea is minimal. Prior to
the Russian annexation of the peninsula in 2014, Turkish influence in the
region was visible in various areas, from business to religion. But since
seizing the territory, Russia does not seem to have allowed its Turkish
partners to take root in Crimea.
Although Ukraine restoring its sovereignty over
Crimea seems a long way off, the very fact that Kyiv has started actively
striking Russian positions in the region suggests that, sooner or later,
Crimean towns and cities could suffer heavy damage. After the war, if Ukraine
manages to recapture Crimea, the territory — just like many other Ukrainian
regions — will need extensive reconstruction. With its historic links there,
Turkey would be very interested in playing a crucial role in rebuilding on the
peninsula.
In the meantime, Ankara will seek to preserve good
ties with both Moscow and Kyiv, and to increase its role as a mediator. Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hopes to revive the negotiations between Russia
and Ukraine based on the parameters that were formed in Istanbul in March.
However, Kyiv is not willing to negotiate until Russian troops withdraw from
all Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.
Only after Russia
is defeated in Ukraine or driven from most of the territory it seized can
Erdogan fully take the prize as the real winner of the Ukraine war.
With little sign of such an outcome at this stage
Turkey will continue what it has been doing: supporting Ukraine while
maintaining relatively good relations with Russia. This way, when the time is
right, Turkish businesses will be at the fore when it comes to rebuilding what
Russia destroyed.
Nikola Mikovic is a political analyst in Serbia. His work focuses mostly on the foreign
policies of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, with special attention on energy and
“pipeline politics”. Syndication Bureau.
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