Egypt was hard hit by the Arab Spring in 2011, making worse
an economic situation that was immensely shabby during the reign of former president
Hosni Mubarak.
اضافة اعلان
The country then received a series of blows from terrorist
activities, which mainly targeted the gas pipelines, consumed a lot of the
country’s energy and affected the morale, while posing as a serious threat.
With COVID-19 hitting in March 2020, this most populated
Arab country suffered a lot, but dealt realistically with the pandemic,
refusing to resort to full closures and directing assistance to the most
damaged sectors.
Egypt, led by President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, still faces dissent
and is challenged by political opposition, but amidst all of that, the economic
correction drive succeeded, and figures and forecasts at the end of 2021 show
that the rectification efforts have paid off.
According to some economists, the country ended 2021 as the
third strongest Arab economy, after Saudi Arabia and the UAE. “Fiscal
consolidation slowed,” according to the Economist Intelligence Unit, “but not
reversed as part of ongoing engagement with the IMF. Domestic demand will be
muted in 2021/22, strengthening later in the 2022-26 period, with economic
growth rising above 5 percent a year from 2022/23.”
In other words, Egypt is likely to achieve the same growth
rate many EU countries will, and is even predicted to surpass some of them in
the coming years, as tourism and consumption pick up.
2020 was a bad year in the Arab world by all economic
standards. All Arab countries witnessed a setback due to the coronavirus
impact, and/or political turbulence, except Egypt, which did very well with a
3.6 percent growth rate, according to World Bank data, while the majority of
Arab countries recorded minus growth, including oil-rich states.
Size of the economy aside, Jordan and Egypt share many
characteristics, including political stability and security despite existing in
a volatile region, reliance on tourism and remittances from nationals working
abroad, weak employment in the public sector and pinning hopes on the private
sector to create the jobs needed, a young society, high rates of school and
college education, partnerships with the IMF and World Bank, as both pursue
economic correction and fighting high unemployment and poverty rates.
Equally important is that both countries have recently
reclaimed their leadership roles in the region after a period of idleness
brought about by regional politics and the influence of the Trump
administration’s policies on the political landscape in the Middle East.
Jordan is aware of Egypt’s strengths and the lessons that
can be learned from a country whose economic policies and related action plans
have been implemented with utter consistency, away from populism. Now the
country is given the thumbs up for a commendable performance that can serve as
a model for other Arab countries, and is likely to reflect on the welfare of
the Egyptian people in the long run.
That is why Jordan has partnered with Egypt to spearhead
mega economic projects in the region, as part of a tripartite alliance, also
involving Iraq, which is struggling to tap its huge potential. The
Egyptian-Jordanian-Iraqi alliance, according to a report by Politics Today,
“may serve as a leverage in Middle East politics”, and economy, of course, if
the three partners follow the path Cairo has taken to fix its economy and
re-emerge as an economic power in this part of the world.
Again, the magic word is “consistency”, which means leaving
no room for hesitation.
This same recipe was followed by emerging economic powers
over the past decades, mainly South Korea and other Asian tigers, among others
across the world. It entails good planning, determination to succeed coupled
with political will and popular support, partnership with the right parties,
and periodic evaluation as well as rectification to ensure that the train
remains on the tracks.
Let us learn from Egypt, and move on. Time is of the
essence.
The writer is a former advisor at the Royal Hashemite Court,
a former director of media and communication at the Office of His Majesty King
Abdullah II, and works currently as a senior advisor for business development
at Al-Ghad and Jordan News.
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