Climate
change is one of the most pressing issues of our time, and its effects are felt
by communities worldwide. But for those living in conflict-affected areas, the
impact of climate change can be particularly devastating. The combination of
rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and increasing frequency and
severity of extreme weather events can exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and
create new yet unseen ones.
اضافة اعلان
Climate
change will complicate conflict mediation and resolution efforts. It will have
a long-term effect on the challenges of rebuilding and recovering from
conflict. This is reflected in the Notre Dame Global
Adaptation Initiative Index, which ranks Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo,
Mali, Somalia, and Yemen — all victims of protracted conflict — among the most
vulnerable to climate change.
While
links between climate change, peace, and security have been widely recognized,
global action across the climate finance spectrum still needs to catch up to
reach those in fragile areas. Under Egypt’s presidency, the COP27 UN climate
summit saw a breakthrough agreement on creating a fund to respond to loss
and damage,
particularly in nations most vulnerable to climate impacts. It also marked the
launch of the first-ever peace-related initiative at a COP, “Climate
Responses for Sustaining Peace”.
In
preparation for COP28, last March, the UAE convened an informal
meeting of
the UN Security Council on climate finance to build and sustain peace. As part
of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week and as president of COP28, the UAE last week
hosted a high-level discussion on climate change, peace, and security. These
are essential steps in the right direction but still much work remains to be
done to integrate the peace-building and climate agenda in conflict-affected
areas.
One
of the most significant effects of climate change in communities affected by
war is the risk of displacement. As natural disasters, such as floods,
droughts, and storms, increase, they will force people to flee their homes with
little or no warning. According to UNHCR, environmental degradation has already
caused more than 20 million people to leave their homes. From the Pacific
Ocean, where countries like Tuvalu and Kiribati face rising sea levels, to
Africa, where drought and desertification are dislodging communities as they
are forced to seek food and water, climate-affected displacement will only
increase in the future.
From the Pacific Ocean, where countries like Tuvalu and Kiribati face rising sea levels, to Africa, where drought and desertification are dislodging communities as they are forced to seek food and water, climate-affected displacement will only increase in the future.
Another
significant impact is the loss of livelihoods. Increased competition for
resources, such as water and land, can exacerbate tensions or lead to outbreaks
of violence and insecurity. According to the UN, by 2050, more than half of
the world’s population is expected to live in water-stressed regions. The
Middle East is particularly vulnerable. Water scarcity is already contributing
to a humanitarian crisis and driving displacement in Iraq. As of January 2019,
the International Organization for Migration recorded almost 15,000
new displacements due to water shortages from the country’s southern
governorates and a further 12,000 due to drought in November 2021. The
International Committee of the Red Cross has been ringing
the alarm bell on the effect of climate change on countries mired in
conflict, most notably in the Central African Republic, Mali, and Iraq.
In
addition to these direct effects, climate change can significantly impact the
health of people living in conflict-affected areas, increasing the spread of
diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. A decline in crop yields in hotspots
like Afghanistan, Yemen and South Sudan has contributed to hunger or
malnutrition. In Somalia, frequent droughts and floods, or landslides in the
Democratic Republic of Congo, have directly led to a rise in cases of cholera
and diarrhea.
The
political and security effects of climate change cannot be overstated,
particularly for conflict-ridden areas and are likely to be a growing source of
communal and inter-state violence in the future. Yet the UN development program
reports that less
than $2 per capita flows from climate finance to countries categorized as
“extremely fragile,” 80 times less than other developing countries.
That
is why more attention and resources must be directed toward addressing the
impacts of climate change on conflict-affected communities.
Firstly,
it is necessary to increase funding for climate change adaptation and disaster
risk reduction in conflict-affected areas. This could include funding
infrastructure projects, early warning systems and emergency response plans.
Humanitarian, security, and development actors, in particular, can start
identifying the modalities to get finance into fragile settings. Inevitably,
this will need to be matched by progress on the technical issues of how much
funding can be disbursed in challenging environments.
Secondly,
stakeholders need to gear up their programs by investing in sustainable
livelihoods including agricultural training and microfinance along with
healthcare and disease prevention. For this to happen, UN agencies dealing with
conflict-affected regions need more support from member states.
Thirdly,
renewable energy sources, including off-grid solar generation, must be
supported and encouraged in conflict-affected areas. The private sector already
has some important innovations that can be integrated and used more widely.
Fourthly,
nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement remain critical
to global efforts to tackle climate change. Yet, peace and security do not
feature prominently in them. That needs to change.
Finally, we
must increase efforts to address the underlying causes of conflict — poverty,
inequality, and political instability.
All
efforts to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on conflict-affected
communities will require collaboration and cooperation between governments,
international organizations, and local communities. That is why it is essential
that the conversations between stakeholders quickly move from ideas to
actionable plans. Failure to take action on climate change will only exacerbate
the suffering of communities in conflict-affected areas. It is therefore urgent
that COP28 makes ambitious efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change on
these communities.
Nickolay Mladenov is the Director-General of the Anwar
Gargash Diplomatic Academy (AGDA) and a Segal Distinguished Visiting Fellow
with the Washington Institute for Near the Policy. He served as the UN
Secretary General’s Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process and
UN Special Representative for Iraq. He previously held the positions of
Bulgaria’s minister of foreign affairs and minister of defense. Twitter:
@nmladenov
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